They started calling the 2018 federal budget a pre-election budget weeks ago.

That hasn't been based on any inside information or actual leaks.

Compared to many previous budgets, very little of Scott Morrison's third budget has leaked.

Sure, there have been plenty of strategic "drop" announcements. And there was even the not-so-strategic Santa outing by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.

But what has made commentators so confident Scott Morrison will hand down a "pre-election" budget this year is not the expectation that a federal election is imminent but budget mathematics — and political reality.

For the past two or three years, it was clear that, around now, the Government would be compelled to give us all a tax cut. It was certain, as Andrew Peacock once famously said, as night follows day

And it is all thanks to a rule about government revenue as a proportion of GDP. The Government declared early on that revenue as a proportion of the economy would never rise above 23.9 per cent of GDP.

Read more:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-05/budget-2018-scott-morrison-santa-r...