Saturday 27th of April 2024

Interest Rates/Economic Performance - Need for Perspective

As we all know, a major focus of this election campaign is economic performance & interest rates, & so far we've seen plenty of attempts to scare people about interest rates.

I've been looking for some information that summarises both the Fraser Government's economic record (in which Howard was treasurer) in terms of interest rates, inflation etc as well as something on housing affordability to put the arguments of the benefits of low interest rates in perspective.

Here's an article that raises a few interesting points in a very simple & understandable way I think the parties opposed to the Government need to raise to properly inform voters:

http://news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,10607481%255E2,00.html

'Going by the most recent figures, Prime Minister John Howard will tell voters repayments on an average mortgage of say, $190,000, are almost $500 lower than they were when the government came to power.

This is true, except it ignores the fact the average mortgage in 1996 was almost $100,000 smaller.

As a proportion of weekly income, mortgage repayments have crept up from 33.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent under the coalition.

Independent measures show housing affordability had fallen to its lowest ever by the end of last year, worse than the previous peak of 1990 when interest rates were 17 per cent.'

If we want to go back to the past to look at economic performance:

'And in putting the spotlight on Labor's record in office, the coalition is also asking for scrutiny of the economy Labor inherited from Treasurer John Howard in 1983.

Then, the economy was going backwards, unemployment was 9.9 per cent, inflation was 11.5 per cent, mortgage interest rates were 12.5 per cent and the Budget deficit as a share of the economy hit 4.2 per cent.

After 13 years of Labor, this had shrunk to 1.7 per cent and the coalition inherited an economy growing at 4.8 per cent as the country rebounded from the recession we had to have.'

I think those of us speaking with family & friends who are taken in by the Government's scare campaign on interest rates, need to be prepared to make the above points to put things into perspective for everyone.

Regards

Stephen