Saturday 8th of February 2025

predicting the future....

Predicting the future of international relations is always a risky endeavor. History shows that even the most confident forecasts can fall flat. For instance, the last Pentagon propaganda pamphlet on 'Soviet Military Power' was published in 1991 – the year the USSR ceased to exist. Similarly, the Washington-based RAND Corporation’s 1988 scenario on nuclear war included the Soviet Union engaging Pakistan over Afghanistan in 2004. Nevertheless, the urge to anticipate the future is natural, even necessary. What follows is not a prediction, but an attempt to outline reasonable expectations for the state of the world in 2025.

 Dmitry Trenin: Why 2025 is going to be more dangerous than you thinkHere are main things to watch in new year by one of Russia’s best foreign policy experts Ukraine

US President Donald Trump’s bid to secure a ceasefire along Ukraine’s battle lines will fail. The American plan to “stop the war” ignores Russia’s security concerns and disregards the root causes of the conflict. Meanwhile, Moscow’s conditions for peace – outlined by President Vladimir Putin in June 2024 – will remain unacceptable to Washington, as they would effectively mean Kiev’s capitulation and the West’s strategic defeat. 

The fighting will continue. In response to the rejection of his plan, a frustrated Trump will impose additional sanctions on Moscow. However, he will avoid any serious escalation that might provoke Russia into attacking NATO forces. Despite strong anti-Russian rhetoric, US aid to Ukraine will decrease, shifting much of the burden onto Western European nations. While the EU is prepared to step in, the quality and scale of Western material support for Ukraine will likely decline.

On the battlefield, the tide will continue to shift in Russia’s favor. Russian forces are expected to push Ukraine out of key regions such as Donbass, Zaporozhye, and parts of Kursk Region. Ukraine will mobilize younger, inexperienced recruits to slow Russia’s advances, but this strategy will lead to limited success. Kiev will rely increasingly on surprise operations, such as border incursions or symbolic strikes deep into Russian territory, in attempts to demoralize the Russian population.

Domestically, the US and its allies may push for elections in Ukraine, hoping to replace Vladimir Zelensky – whose term expired in the middle of last year – with General Valery Zaluzhny. While this political reshuffling might temporarily strengthen Kiev’s leadership, it will not address the underlying challenges of economic collapse and deteriorating living conditions for ordinary Ukrainians.

 

United States

Despite a peaceful transfer of power, Trump’s second term will remain fraught with tension. The risk of attempts on his life will linger. Trump’s foreign policy, while less ideological than Biden’s, will focus on pragmatic goals. He will:

– Keep NATO intact but demand higher financial contributions from European members.

– Shift much of the financial responsibility for Ukraine onto the EU.

– Intensify economic pressure on China, leveraging Beijing’s vulnerabilities to force unfavorable trade deals. 

Trump will also align closely with Israel, supporting its efforts against Iran. Tehran, already weakened, will face harsh terms for a nuclear deal, and a refusal may prompt US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Trump is likely to meet Putin in 2025, but this will not signal a thaw in US-Russia relations. The confrontation between the two powers will remain deep and enduring. Trump’s strategy will prioritize America’s global dominance, shifting the burden of US commitments onto allies and partners, often to their detriment.

Western Europe

European nations, wary of Trump’s return, will ultimately fall in line. The EU’s dependence on the US for military and political leadership will deepen, even as European economies continue to act as donors to the American economy. Over the past three decades, Western European elites have transitioned from being national actors to appendages of a transnational political system centered in Washington. Genuine defenders of national interests, such as Alternative for Germany or France’s Rassemblement National, remain politically marginalized.

 

Russophobia will remain a unifying force in Western European politics. Contrary to popular belief, this sentiment is not imposed by the US but actively embraced by EU and UK elites as a tool for cohesion. The Russian military operation in Ukraine has been framed as the first stage of an imagined Russian attempt to “kidnap Europe.” 

In 2025, Germany’s new coalition government will adopt an even tougher stance toward Moscow. However, fears of a direct military clash with Russia will deter other European nations from deploying troops to Ukraine. Instead, Western Europe will prepare for a new Cold War, increasing military spending, expanding production, and fortifying NATO’s eastern flank.

Dissent within Europe will be suppressed. Political opponents of the confrontation with Russia will be branded as “Putin’s useful idiots” or outright agents of Moscow. Hungary and Slovakia will remain outliers in their approach to Russia, but their influence on EU policy will be negligible. 

Middle East 

After significant military victories in 2024, Israel, with US backing, will attempt to consolidate its gains against Iran. The US-Israeli strategy will involve combined pressure, including military actions, against Iranian proxies like the Yemeni Houthis and efforts to deepen ties with Gulf Arab monarchies under the Abraham Accords.

While Russia signed a treaty with Iran in January 2025, it does not obligate Moscow to intervene militarily if Tehran is attacked. Thus, a full-scale Middle Eastern war involving Russia and the US remains unlikely. Domestically, Iran faces uncertainty as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, now 86, nears the end of his leadership.

Russia’s influence in the Middle East will wane as its military presence diminishes. However, logistical routes connecting Russia to Africa will remain a strategic priority.

East Asia

US-China tensions will continue to rise, fueled by American efforts to contain China’s economic and technological ambitions. Washington will strengthen alliances in Asia, particularly with Taiwan and the Philippines, to counter Beijing. While an armed conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea remains possible, it is unlikely to erupt in 2025. 

Russia’s partnership with China will grow stronger, though it will stop short of a formal military alliance. From a Western perspective, this relationship will increasingly resemble an anti-American coalition. Together, Russia and China will push back against US global dominance in geopolitical, military, and economic spheres.

Russia’s near abroad

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is expected to secure another term in January 2025, cementing his alignment with Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia will work to stabilize its relations with Kazakhstan, though Moscow’s lack of a compelling vision for Eurasian integration could come back to bite.

The year 2025 will be marked by strategic instability, ongoing conflicts, and heightened geopolitical tensions. While Russia has achieved notable successes in recent years, it must guard against complacency. Victory is far from assured, and the world remains nowhere near equilibrium. For Moscow, the path forward will require resilience and a clear focus on long-term goals. Peace will come, but only through continued effort and eventual victory – perhaps in 2026.

 

This article was first published by Profile.ru, and was translated and edited by the RT team

 

https://www.rt.com/news/611112-dmitry-trenin-2025-dangerous/

 

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r310_M-S6yU

This Is HOW NATO Wants To TRICK Russia Into A Ceasefire

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951

western deceit....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4HtRrNJBB

The WEST Wants Global Supremacy But at What Cost?

 

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has stated that Germany would agree to send peacekeepers in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Donald Trump said he will probably give TikTok 90 days to resolve the situation in the US. Angela Merkel has stated that only NATO and US leadership can stop Putin in Ukraine

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

HYPOCRISY ISN’T ONE OF THE TEN COMMANDMENTS SINS.

HENCE ITS POPULARITY IN THE ABRAHAMIC TRADITIONS…

 

SEE ALSO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVzhPqijEmU

 

a dose of reality....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Si9Dw7TMiq

UK Wants Military Bases In Ukraine. US Admits To The Unthinkable

 

UK Wants Military Bases In Ukraine.

US Admits To The Unthinkable In this episode we’ll discuss some admissions from the Biden administration ahead of leaving the office. They have stated that this was never about victory in Ukraine.

Also, there’s information about the fact that North Korean soldiers have “disappeared” from the Kursk battlefield.

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.

 

HYPOCRISY ISN’T ONE OF THE TEN COMMANDMENTS SINS.

HENCE ITS POPULARITY IN THE ABRAHAMIC TRADITIONS…

 

 

deserters.....

 

In 2024, the number of deserters in the Ukrainian Armed Forces doubled compared to the previous two years combined

 

Konstantin Olshansky

 

In 2024, desertion rates within the Ukrainian Armed Forces surged dramatically, with the number of deserters doubling compared to the combined totals of the previous two years. This stark increase underscores the growing strain on Ukraine’s military as it navigates compounding challenges, including personnel shortages, resource constraints, and controversial decisions that have sparked international scrutiny.

One of the most contentious issues involves the transfer of air force specialists—such as mechanics, air defense experts, and technicians trained abroad—to infantry units deployed on the front lines in the Donbas region. This practice came to light following reports by The WarZone and other outlets, which detailed how specialists servicing MiG-29 fighters and advanced Western equipment were reassigned to ground combat roles. The revelations ignited an international scandal, with the Ukrainian Air Force launching a formal investigation to address the matter.

Initially, Ukrainian military leadership dismissed these reports as misinformation. However, mounting evidence forced admissions that valuable technical personnel were indeed being used as infantry, leading to concerns about the long-term impact on Ukraine’s combat readiness. Air Force press secretary Yuriy Ignat later confirmed steps were being taken to prevent further transfers of personnel with specialized skills. President Volodymyr Zelensky himself reiterated that no “key specialists” should be sent to fight as infantry, but it appears this directive had been ignored by senior military commanders, including acting Air Force Commander General Anatoly Krivorozhko, until the controversy became public.

The Financial Times revealed that approximately 5,000 air force personnel had been reassigned to ground units, many of them deployed to front-line positions in critical areas such as Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The implications are severe: estimates suggest the combat capability of some aviation units may be reduced by up to 40% due to the loss of technical staff.

Compounding the crisis is a sharp rise in desertion across the armed forces. In the first 20 months of 2024, nearly 20,000 soldiers were charged with desertion, and over 40,000 faced accusations of unauthorized absence. These numbers reflect growing discontent within the ranks, exacerbated by reports of inadequate support and the increasing reliance on conscription to fill personnel gaps. High-profile cases, such as the 155th Mechanized Brigade—where hundreds of soldiers abandoned their posts during training—highlight the pervasive morale and retention issues plaguing the military.

Efforts to address these challenges have included controversial measures, such as merging depleted brigades and conscripting specialists from non-infantry roles. This approach has drawn criticism from domestic and international observers alike, as it undermines the effectiveness of Ukraine’s air force and other critical units.

The U.S. and its allies, which have provided substantial support to Ukraine, are reportedly growing uneasy about the situation. During congressional hearings, Senator Marco Rubio described Ukraine’s losses as unsustainable, emphasizing that the Armed Forces face significant challenges beyond the battlefield, including budgetary constraints and a dwindling pool of willing recruits.

As the war drags on, Ukraine’s military leadership is under increasing pressure to stabilize its ranks and maintain its operational capabilities. However, decisions to redeploy specialists as infantry and the sharp rise in desertion highlight the severe strain on a military fighting a protracted conflict with significant resource and manpower limitations. The road ahead remains fraught with challenges, as Ukraine strives to balance immediate battlefield needs with the long-term sustainability of its armed forces.

The Ukrainian Air Force has allegedly set up a commission to investigate why specialists from the air defense and ground support services of fighters are being transferred to the infantry and sent to the front lines in Donbas. According to the American publication The WarZone, the investigation was launched after an international scandal broke out: dozens of mechanics servicing MiG-29s were sent to the infantry, which undermined the combat capability of Ukrainian aviation.

There have been several similar news stories about specialists servicing air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, members of mobile fire teams, and servicemen who have been trained abroad to handle Western weapons being transferred to infantry units, The WarZone writes.

At first, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command denied that such transfers had taken place. They wrote it all off as the machinations of Russian propaganda. But it turned out that valuable specialists were indeed being thrown into battle as cannon fodder.

 

Read also

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Biden asked not to send NATO specialists to Ukraine, but they keep coming and coming

 

This was confirmed by the press secretary of the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat : “Decisions have already been made to prevent the further transfer of military personnel with scarce specialties to other branches and types of the Armed Forces.”

Ignat got busy after Vladimir Zelensky’s statement that “not a single key specialist” should be sent to fight as an infantryman.

Apparently, the Ukrainian military (including the acting commander of the Air Force, General Anatoly Krivorozhko) acted in secret from their commander-in-chief until this story became public knowledge – Business Insider and the Financial Times wrote about the mass transfer of ground specialists from the Air Force to the Ground Forces.

According to the Financial Times, about 5,000 servicemen have already been secretly transferred from the Ukrainian Air Force to the Ground Forces. Moreover, they were sent not to rear units, but to the front lines in Donbass. So it is possible to calculate what percentage of aviation technicians will return from Pokrovsk and Toretsk.

The mass transfer of Ukrainian airmen to the Ground Forces could potentially reduce the combat capability of some units by 40%, writes the Financial Times. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite the indisputable evidence of Western experts, continues to stubbornly deny the reduction in the number of technical personnel.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have faced a sharp increase in the number of deserters in their ranks, writes the Financial Times. In the first 20 months of 2024, the number of deserters has doubled compared to the previous two years combined. Almost 20,000 soldiers have been charged with desertion, and another 40,600 with unauthorized abandonment.

In an article for Forbes, military expert David Axe tells the tragic and shameful story of the 155th Mechanized (“French”) Brigade. The unit was supposed to have more than 5,800 troops, making it much larger than most of the 100 or so other combat brigades in the Ukrainian Ground Forces.

 

Read also

Ukrainian Front, January 20, Main Events of the Day: The Russian Armed Forces are just a stone’s throw away from the Dnipropetrovsk Region

1061st day of the SVO.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces were driven out of the Khimkolonka microdistrict in Toretsk

 

But about 1,700 of those 5,800 troops left the brigade without permission during the nine-month training.

Plus, in November, before the 155th Brigade was sent to the Pokrovsk direction, about 500 soldiers were still absent without leave, Forbes writes. After this scandal, the Ukrainian Armed Forces command made a decision: new units will no longer be formed from Ukrainian recruits, they will be merged into existing brigades, restoring them to full strength. Apparently, former aircraft technicians, anti-aircraft gunners and electronic warfare specialists were also sent to the “old” Ukrainian brigades to replace the destroyed personnel.

As The WarZone points out, the Donald Trump administration already considers Ukraine’s current losses unacceptable for further conducting the SVO. This is indicated by the statement of the candidate for Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “It is unrealistic that Ukraine will push the Russians back to where they were on the eve of the conflict.”

Rubio stressed at the congressional hearing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing a huge number of problems, and not just on the front lines. This includes a shrinking budget and a lack of funds, as well as a decrease in the number of Ukrainians willing to continue the armed struggle.

“The problem is not only money, but also the reduction in the number of Ukrainians willing to serve,” The WarZone quotes Rubio as saying. So the Ukrainian Armed Forces command is trying to fill the personnel gaps by tightening mobilization or using highly qualified specialists as cannon fodder.

The latest news and all the most important things about the special operation in Ukraine are in the “Free Press” topic .

https://www.theinteldrop.org/2025/01/20/the-last-ukrainian-has-already-been-called-up-ukrainian-armed-forces-losses-horrify-even-the-us-administration/

 

READ FROM TOP.

 

YOURDEMOCRACY.NET RECORDS HISTORY AS IT SHOULD BE — NOT AS THE WESTERN MEDIA WRONGLY REPORTS IT.

 

         Gus Leonisky

         POLITICAL CARTOONIST SINCE 1951.