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as the wind blows...

windpower....
picture by Gus, 2013.

The world is on track to become up to five degrees hotter, and sea levels could rise more than 80 centimetres this century, according to a leaked draft of a landmark climate change report prepared for the UN.
There is now a 95 per cent likelihood human greenhouse gas emissions are driving changes being observed globally, which in recent weeks have included extraordinary heatwaves in Asia and Alaska.
That degree of certainty has been revised up from 90 per cent in the last report in 2007, 66 per cent in 2001, and just over 50 in 1995. A sea level rise of up to 82 centimetres, which would have serious impacts on coastal cities everywhere, is now ''unequivocal'', Reuters reported.

But while many forecasts have hardened, the certainty over some of the impacts of global warming has declined, with scientists struggling to predict some local effects including regional changes in rainfall, drought and wild weather.
The final version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which will cover the expected effects of climate on Australia in coming decades, is scheduled for release in September.
About 200 countries, including Australia, have pledged to hold temperature rises to two degrees by cutting emissions, though few nations are on track to meet that goal.
The federal opposition rejected a report by Fairfax Media on Monday that showed banks and other major investors estimated that about $4 billion in private funding for renewable energy projects would be withheld if the Coalition won office.
This estimate is based on work by market analysts suggesting that regulatory uncertainty and the prospect of unknown returns would stymie investment.
Roughly $20 billion in private and public investment would be required to meet the mandatory renewable energy target - 20 per cent clean energy by 2020 - that has bipartisan political support.
The opposition climate spokesman, Greg Hunt, said he speaks to big investors regularly and did not believe they had any concerns about the opposition's ''direct action'' climate change policy.
The opposition intends to spend about $2.5 billion to buy emissions cuts in its first four years, and dismantle the government's emissions trading scheme, climate science advisory panel and Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
Mr Hunt said the corporation was spending far more than it needed by partnering in large-scale solar power plants and other renewable projects.

The Climate Change Minister, Mark Butler, said the Labor policy was producing results, including a 7 per cent cut in emissions from the National Electricity Market and a 25 per cent increase in renewable energy generation in the past year. ''The Coalition's climate change policy is an expensive dud,'' he said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/revealed-80cm-sea-rise-warning-20130819-2s7dt.html#ixzz2cT0ney5h

Meanwhile the ruthless market forces have decided:

Big business wants the main parties to go back to the drawing board on climate policy after the election to try to come up with an agreed plan for an economically efficient way to reduce Australia's emissions and offer investment certainty.

In what amounts to a vote of no confidence in the environmental policies of both major parties, the Business Council of Australia says the government's independent research body, the Productivity Commission, should be asked to have another look at the cheapest way to reduce to Australia's greenhouse emissions.

When it was asked to review international carbon policies in 2011, the commission found that in general carbon pricing was most cost-effective, so long as it was not "crowded out" by other regulations and climate subsidies.

New modelling has suggested the Coalition's Direct Action plan – of-buying emissions reduction through competitive government grants – is at least $4bn short of the money it needs to achieve Australia's minimum emissions reduction of 5% by 2020. Many business groups – including the BCA – support carbon pricing but have criticised Labor's model.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/aug/19/business-urges-climate-policy-rethink

 

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Gus: It's obvious that "big business" wants to milk "uncertainty" in the mind of punters until "it's too late to do anything"...  And "big business" of course would support a coalition non-solution where lots of money is the key to doing not much....

By now in order to limit the rise of temperature by 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, "big business" should know that emissions of CO2 need to be capped by 2050 at less than 10 per cent of what they were in 2000... All this means that by 2025 we need to cut our emissions by 60 per cent... With consuming passion, this is quasi-impossible considering that the world population would have grown another 2 billion by 2050...

Reducing emissions will mean a massive rethink of the unthinkable: rewriting the way finances are played out with super stringent limits on gambling on the future... a 1500 trillion dollars derivative market biting the dust, in flames... By then, 2050, it will have become obvious that the only way to curb emissions would be to shut down "extra" carbon consumption to basically zero (we should have started zero extra emissions of CO2 in 1996, as mentioned by Gus before). Gone will be the oil and coal industries, hello wind mills and solar panels everywhere, good morning delicately calculated recycling and good afternoon conservation... Anathema!.... No more plastics, no more stock exchange... The end of uncivil civilisations and the beginning of preciously thrifty civilities, in which one or two greedy bastards will still try to rob us blind... on a massive world scale... But the police would be instructed to shoot on sight of any CO2 infringements...

The UN forecast though is still very much on the "conservative" side of change. It is scientifically known that change can happen quickly and surprisingly bigger than predicted... without warning.

"Is it true that winter is coming?"...

 

"Is it true that winter is coming?"
"How does it feel to be a nut and a bolt at the same time?"
"I'm lost in Chatswood looking for Westfield. Should I take an extreme right?"
They're not exactly incisive questions on the federal election but the Twittersphere is demanding Andrew Bolt answer them all the same.

After asking Twitter users to post questions for an online chat with the conservative columnist, the Herald Sun and Daily Telegraph have been trolled with an avalanche of Dorothy Dixers ranging from the humorous to the offensive.

By the time the answer session with Bolt began at noon on Tuesday, the #askbolt hashtag had become the biggest trending Twitter topic in Australia for all the wrong reasons.
Business Insider posted 11 of the best questions online including demands to know whether he agrees that the Necronomicon, written by HP Lovecraft under the pseudonym of "mad Arab" Abdul Alhazred, is the most dangerous book in the world or whether Bolt has ever thought about being a journalist.

Other users asked Bolt if his milkshake brought all the boys to the yard or whether he has ever seen Piers Akerman eat 50 hard boiled eggs.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/andrew-bolt-askbolt-hashtag-unleashes-a-twitter-storm-20130820-2s8fh.html#ixzz2cTgTMWeh

It is a fact that winter has not come yet in Sydney, apart from a few rare cool days, including today... Andrew Bolt is known for being a virulent denialist of climate change... A nut, an ignoramus on a grand scale, exacting to be an idiot just to be contrary...

 

confucius: environmental protection can make you rich!...

This August, China's leaders withdrew to Beidaihe, a bathing resort on the Bohai Sea where they have gone to calmly debate issues of power and personnel since the days of Mao. Politics, or so it seemed, had gone on a summer holiday.

But that's where, on Sunday, August 11, the government released a guideline with the modest title "Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Energy-Saving and Environmental Protection Industries." According to the document, the government is upgrading the environmental sector to the rank of a "key industry," a title that had been reserved for the steel and pharmaceutical industries, as well as biotechnology. Under the new guideline, the sector is expected to earn a massive $728 billion (€545 billion) by 2015, and to grow at twice the rate of the rest of the economy.Beijing wants to boost manufacturers of energy-efficient power plant equipment, significantly increase the number of cars and buses running on liquefied natural gas and further expand the number of wind and solar farms, as well as nuclear power plants
The government plans to achieve all of this using investments, tax breaks and direct subsidies -- from which companies with foreign investors are expressly to benefit as well.
It appears that the world's second-largest economy and biggest climate offender is on the verge of an energy shift, and German industry could be one of the largest potential beneficiaries.

'You Could Call It Liconomics'

"The new guideline is so important because it uses strictly economic arguments," says ecologist Zou Ji of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation. Beijing's message, he explains, is tailored primarily to the entrepreneurial spirit of the Chinese people: "Environmental protection can make you rich!"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/chinese-leadership-announces-new-focus-on-green-energy-a-917389.html

warm winter...

So much for winter.
With only a handful of days to the end of the month, Sydney is all but certain of registering its warmest winter on record.

We haven't had those really hot days but we've definitely missed out on the cooler days 


The Harbour City averaged daily maximums of 19.5 degrees in July and is likely to fall just short of 21 degrees for August. That compares with long-term averages of 19.4 and 20 degrees for May and September, respectively, said Rob Sharpe, a meteorologist with Weatherzone.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/winter-records-melt-for-sydney-20130826-2slo2.html#ixzz2d3Xsx5dg

i am earth...

http://iamreal.com.au/

this is not a dress rehearsal...

For Sydneysiders, the winter of our content is making way for balmy, dry conditions more usually enjoyed in Brisbane.
August was more than 3 degrees above the long-term average for daily maximum temperatures, although just short of a monthly record set in 1995.
Combined with July's record warmth, Sydney will register its highest maximum, mean and possibly minimum average temperatures for winter.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/living-in-cuckoo-land-winter-warmth-brings-out-early-birds-20130830-2svrl.html#ixzz2dRf3UTzg

Note : This is not a dress rehearsal. This is the real McCoy.... Most likely, summer is going to be hell... Weather-wise and from stupid politics from turdy Abbott...
Global warming is not a fallacy... And sadly, this turd-in-chief, Abbott, is most likely going to fuck it up some more, with his silly obsession to appear to old retired folks that he is serious about his hate of the "Carbon Tax"...... Tony has no idea, just polemic argument in his trousers — nor has the news on whatever channel but especially the ABC, being more than happy to report that people were able to go to the beach today... Luverly.... News is full of shit, unable to say "watch out, global warming is going to make your life hell, sooner than you think"... Or that "your kids will be suffering most from your idiocy — burning fossil fuel to power this crap TV show"...
A couple of weeks ago, violent storms with hail the size of cricket balls destroyed a lot of the wine regions of Burgundy and Bordeaux, in France... Of course hail storms have happened before there, but "never that big" and "not this frequently"... Mind you, like the opening of the north-west passage due to the over-melting of summer ice at the north pole, this sad weather event can "open up" some opportunities say for Aussie reds... to fill the gap...
But the effect of global warming is just in its infancy... Yes, we are living in cuckoo land... This is not a dress rehearsal... This is the real McCoy.
see also: http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

the russian floods...

When President Vladimir Putin flew to the Khabarovsk region on Thursday to survey the damage from the record flooding in the area, ecologists said he came face-to-face not only with the stubbornly rising waters, but with his own doubts about global warming.

Some ecologists say that global warming is the cause of the record flooding in the Far East and cautioned that more areas in Russia are at risk of severe weather changes in the future as the problem escalates.

High-level officials, including those from the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry, met late Thursday in the Khabarovsk Region to discuss the impact of the flood, but given the scope of solutions that were presented earlier this week, ecologists are not expecting any changes to the government's policies, which they said favor business over environment.

"I'm not going to read letters and telegrams that are coming from citizens in my address. We'll discuss those at a separate meeting," Putin said Thursday. "But I want to turn your attention to the fact that not everything is as smooth as we'd like to think."

The Amur region is so far the most affected by the floods, but the emergency regime is currently also in place in the republic of Sakha and the Khabarovsk and Primorye regions, as well as the Jewish autonomous region.

Record amounts of rain fell in the Amur region during July and August, surpassing the annual average and creating the worst flood situation in more than a century. Water levels in the Amur River near Khabarovsk rose a further 15 centimeters Thursday and reached 7.56 meters, according to statistics from the state-run weather center. The highest levels previously recorded were just more than 6 meters.

The current situation is expected to get worse as heavy rains continue to pummel the region at least until the start of next week, according to a forecast that the weather center released Wednesday. Local meteorologists predict that floodwaters could reach 9 meters before the levels start to fall — not earlier than the middle of September.

Preliminary estimates for damage caused by the floods in the Khabarovsk region are 4.7 billion rubles ($141 million), the region's acting governor, Vyacheslav Shport, said Thursday, RIA Novosti reported. This figure could increase to 7 billion rubles as the situation worsens.



Read more: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ecologists-link-far-east-floods-to-global-warming/485273.html#ixzz2dRvmadF9 
The Moscow Times 

greg hunt talks shit...

 

GREG HUNT:  "He's looked out 40 years - this is Dr Michael Battaglia - and said that over 40 years we can reduce our emissions by 20 per cent per annum through using nature, using soils, using carbon, using trees; much more aggressive than anything we've ever promoted," Mr Hunt said.

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Fact Checker ABC: Dr Michael Battaglia, deputy director of the CSIRO's Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, looked at ways of increasing the amount of carbon stored in agriculture and forestry through changes to the way we use land in a chapter he contributed to the 2011 book, Climate Change: Science And Solutions For Australia.

Dr Battaglia wrote that those changes could potentially offset as much as 20 per cent of Australia's emissions during the next 40 years.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-30/greg-hunt-not-giving-full-story-climate-research/4923258

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These two extract from FactCheck at the ABC  — a crappy fact-checker that cannot fact check itself... Read the top statement by Greg Hunt and the analysis by Battaglia... "could potentially offset as much as 20 per cent of Australia's emissions during the next 40 years." This does not mean that "could potentially offset as much as 20 per cent of Australia's emissions during the next 40 years EVERY YEAR, AS GREG HUNT IS CLAIMING.

IT SAYS 20 PER CENT OVER 40 YEARS — "POTENTIALLY as much as"... But even this does not say it will. Over the next 40 years, AUSTRALIA and the rest of the world will have to reduce CO2 emissions by 90 per cent... "Potentially 20 per cent over 40 years" is far from enough and the way Greg Hunt is framing his answer is crap.


 

 

Clean Energy...

Wind energy records were broken in four states in August, according to new figures, as the Coalition gears up to place the wind power industry under greater scrutiny should it win power on Saturday.

The Clean Energy Council said that the amount of power produced by Australia’s wind farms in August was enough to power Sydney Opera House for the next 57 years.

South Australia, which has led the way in wind energy, was again the frontrunner, deriving 38% of its power from the wind last month, well above its previous record of 31%.

Tasmania, at 11%, Victoria, at 7.9%, and NSW, at 1.8%, also broke their respective state records for share of power derived from wind during August.

The total of 1,024 gigawatt hours generated by wind farms was enough to make more than 6bn toasted sandwiches, according to the Clean Energy Council.

“Australia’s renewable energy target is supporting projects that generate jobs and investment, as well as clean energy,” said Russell Marsh, policy director at the council.

“The new Macarthur wind farm in western Victoria is the largest in the southern hemisphere and provided a huge clean energy boost over the last month.

“While New South Wales is behind some of the other states when it comes to wind power, it still enjoyed a record month and has massive potential to reap the job and investment benefits from encouraging clean energy,” Marsh said.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/06/wind-power-records-broken

defiance under the law...

 

The investment fund set up under Labor to encourage low emission technology and renewable energy projects has rejected a request from the Treasurer Joe Hockey to stop making new investments.

The announcement comes ahead of a key shadow cabinet meeting today at which Labor MPs will discuss their next move on the future of the carbon tax.

The Coalition's carbon price repeal policy includes provisions to dismantle the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC). 

Mr Hockey is expected to introduce the legislation later this year and has asked the CEFC to stop lending in the interim.

However, the board and executive of the fund have decided to continue making investment decisions.

In a statement the CEFC says:

"Until legislation is passed, the CEFC is required by law to fulfil its responsibilities under the legislative framework in which it operates. This includes performing our investment function and therefore we are continuing to progress investment proposals."

The CEFC has already invested more than half a billion dollars in low emissions projects.

The annual report for the last financial year says every dollar of investment has attracted $2.90 in private sector spending.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-01/labor-negative-political-climate-carbon-policy/5063658

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 Meanwhile at the laborious farm:

Anthony Albanese has declared Labor will stand by its principles on carbon pricing before a shadow cabinet meeting canvassing how to respond to Tony Abbott’s intention to repeal the clean energy package.

The shadow infrastructure minister, who lost Labor’s recent leadership ballot to the Victorian right winger Bill Shorten, said the party’s ongoing commitment to carbon pricing was made clear by both candidates during the leadership contest.

“It was a bit of an issue in another ballot that was held recently and both myself and Bill Shorten made our position clear,” Albanese told reporters in Canberra before the shadow cabinet discussions on Friday.

“Labor’s position on climate change is very clear. Labor believes that climate change is real. Labor accepts the science on climate change,” Albanese told reporters.

“Labor knows that we need to act, and knows a market-based mechanism is the cheapest way of reducing emissions. The response we have to the government’s legislation will be consistent with those principles.”

Climate change, he said, did not end on 7 September. It remained a fundamental issue for future generation.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/01/anthony-albanese-declares-labors-commitment-to-carbon-pricing

 

ethiopia, doing better than australia...

 


Ethiopia's renewable energy revolution


30 November 2013 Last updated at 04:04 GMT


In Ethiopia the government has recently announced major deals that should massively increase the amount of electricity generated from renewable resources.

The BBC's Emmanuel Igunza has been finding out how Ethiopia is leading Africa in the drive to exploit sustainable energy supplies.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25153255