Wednesday 14th of November 2018

if you don't understand nor believe what he talks about, you are a better christian economist than he is...

economistic bullshiteconomistic bullshit

I think it is true that post the global financial crisis initially and for some period after that and particularly with how the mining investment boom and commodity prices played out – there was a dislocation that occurred in some of the more traditional mechanisms. That was set out in a speech I gave to the Business Council of Australia last year based on some excellent work that Treasury had done, which demonstrated that the movement in commodity prices in the mining investment boom had basically led to an income increase which had got well ahead of productivity, so the normal interaction between these forces had become disconnected. But what the same research shows is now we’ve moved through that. That’s what gives me the greater confidence that we are getting back to a normal transmission – the normal rules on supply and demand. I don’t discount there being a dislocation post the GFC but I don’t consider that a permanent phenomenon and I don’t think the evidence bears that out. I think a lot of what we are seeing in financial markets at the moment is how all of that is starting to be reconciled.  I think evidence will be lived on this. What I do acknowledge is there has been that disruption … but that is now subsiding as more conventional economic mechanisms kick in. To the extent there is a lag, I think that’s a reasonable question. In the US – because it’s not just Australia which has experienced flat wages growth, and let’s not forget flat wages growth was there for the entire period of the Hawke/Keating government – flat wages growth has been there in other developed economies but for slightly different reasons. I mean they didn’t have the impact of the commodities boom and the mining investment boom, that had a far bigger impact on wages and where they’ve been heading in Australia, and obviously that didn’t impact on other markets at all. The figures in the US last Friday were really so telling and they said to the financial markets, ‘oh hang on a tick, things are starting to return to normal here.’ This world of low rates, low inflation, low growth had been the sort of conventional wisdom. I mean, the IMF 18 months or so ago – that was what was on the slide. That breaking down, and normal transmission being resumed, is what markets are adjusting to.

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wage rise — only for obscene politicians...

FEDERAL politicians will be at least $4000 better off from next month after they were handed a pay rise on top of a tax cut.

Backbench MPs will be paid more than $200,000 for the first time because an independent tribunal decided to give them a 2 per cent pay rise worth almost $4000 from July 1.

The pay rise is the first for politicians in 18 months but comes at a time when wage growth is at a record low, with some retail, hospitality and fast-food workers also facing penalty rate cuts from next month.

Federal MPs and senators will also no longer have to pay the temporary two per cent deficit levy from July which hit Australians earning more than $180,000.

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Labor frontbencher Brendan O’Connor has described Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to pay 30 political staffers more than the maximum pay rate of $259,000 at a time when wage growth is at a record low as “obscene”.

The Prime Minister has personally intervened to give wage boosts to 30 staff members who are receiving salaries above the top rate, and well above the $203,000 wage of most federal MPs.

Answers to Senate Estimates questions on notice from Labor senator Don Farrell have revealed the bill for the extra pay totals $840,000.

Mr Turnbull has attributed the salaries to pay rates the staff received in the public service, before being seconded as politicians’ personal staff.

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the new "normal"...



It said “the gap between the lower wages of those entering into employment and those already working has widened”. In a big sign that things have changed, those coming into the workforce are being paid relatively less than new workers used to be.

And so as we get into the 10th year since the GFC, the “new normal” of weak or non-existent household income growth remains in place. And governments and markets might do well to ponder why they believe things are returning to normal when households are clearly telling them that they are not.


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tax cuts views...

In QT the PM tore into @albericie for her analysis that there is little case for corporate tax cuts. He’s ignored similar pieces by @MichaelWestBiz @Adam_Creighton @StephenLongAus @1petermartin @BernardKeane

Draw your own conclusions.


After complaints from Malcolm Turnbull, ABC News has removed an analysis piece about the government’s proposed corporate tax cuts by economics correspondent Emma Alberici.


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The analysis by Emma Alberici was far better than what Trumble is dishing out but, under pressure from the business lobbies to give them more cream on their cakes, Trumble does not like the truth, which he does not believe in. Trumble believes in the trickle down which has never worked.  He believe that by saying no more bonking with staff in parliament will solve the Barnaby Issue... !!! Is Malcolm getting short of a plank as he gets older?

no we do not hate...

The nation's peak business group is preparing a new offensive to urge crossbench senators to back Malcolm Turnbull's sweeping company tax cuts, warning that an "ideological hatred" of corporate Australia threatens to weaken wages and jobs growth for a decade....

This is from an article on the front page of the SMH, but I have not found the link yet....

That is a bit rich. No we do not hate "corporate Australia" though we could find a lot of reasons to do so. The picture of Jennifer Westacott on the front of the SMH is offensive alright. She is turning her right hand sleeve as if she's about to thump someone though it might be ment that, at last, "corporate Australia" is about to do some work for a change. The work for this Chief Executive of the Business Council of Australia is to lobby politicians to lower taxes for companies, nothing else. If you think that this move will bring you, workers, more cash in your pay packet, you naively might be lured to enjoy a golden shower from the next politician...