Wednesday 23rd of September 2020

the cold facts about global warming...


The world has already warmed by 1.1 degrees compared to pre-Industrial Revolution levels. The IPCC believes that meeting the 1.5-degree target would require an extremely ambitious effort, requiring that the world halve its CO2 to roughly the level of 1979. And we would have to do so by 2030, just 10 years from now.


It would also require that CO2 emissions be further reduced to zero by 2040. For the more realistic 2-degree target, CO2 emissions would have to be reduced by a quarter by 2030. 

If both targets are missed, the only other possibility for a future with a climate that is still bearable would be for humanity to find a way to artificially extract hundreds of billions of tons of CO2 from the atmosphere at extremely high costs, using large-scale technologies for which there are no guarantees that they will work.

'Nowhere Near on Track'

The prospects for reaching the 1.5-degree goal, though, are "on the brink of becoming impossible," researchers warned in the annual "Emissions Gap Report" compiled by the UN Environmental Program and released on Nov. 26. The report takes a look at the CO2 reductions countries should be undertaking with those that they are actually achieving. 

Enormous discrepancies become apparent in the report. Even if the countries were to achieve all the climate change goals they have committed themselves to so far, global warming would still exceed 3 degrees Celsius by 2100, according to the report. This would cause a sea level rise of half a meter (1'8"), meaning cities like Miami or Shanghai might have to be abandoned.

In order to achieve the 1.5-degree target, though, the countries of the world would have to multiply their efforts -- and ensure that they emit 32 billion tons less CO2 by 2030. The UNEP report states that even just 2-degree target would require a rapid reduction of total CO2 emissions by around 15 billion tons. 

It's not impossible, but it is extremely difficult. Researchers who worked on the UN report say achieving the 1.5 degree goal would require that each country reduce its CO2 emissions by 7.6 percent each year between 2020 and 2030. In order to achieve the 2-degree target, reductions of 2.7 percent per year are necessary. "We are nowhere near on track to meet the Paris Agreement target," said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, summing up the situation. 

Meanwhile, UNEP head Inger Anderson has said that "radical transformations" of economies and societies toward increased sustainability are now needed. Otherwise, she says, we will find ourselves facing a "planet radically altered by climate change." There is no third option.

The UNEP report is critical of lack of action taken by countries around the world despite the promises they have made. When the first "Emissions Gap Report" was released in 2010, many countries promised to phase out subsidies for fossil fuels, but little has happened since then. Others promised to stop deforestation, but often enough, words weren't followed by deeds.

The organization is now urging G-20 countries to adopt a series of tough measures. The EU should stop generating power from coal, for instance, and forget about installing gas pipelines from Russia. Europe should also abolish the combustion engine, make buildings more energy-efficient more quickly and massively expand local public transportation everywhere.

The new head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced a "European Green Deal" on Wednesday, which the commission said would likely require investments of over 1 trillion euros in additional climate protection measures by 2030. The aim is for the entire Continent to become carbon-neutral by 2050, at least according to the official plan. The measures that will ultimately be taken to achieve this, however, will likely fall short of UNEP's demands.


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meanwhile, boris, the lying stupid idiot...

One of Boris Johnson’s first moves as the UK’s newly elected Prime Minister has been to put a climate science denier in the government.

Monmouth MP David T.C. Davies has been made a Minister in the Wales Office, and Assistant Government Whip. He has previously claimed that it is “not proven” that carbon dioxide is responsible for what he describes as a “relatively small” amount of global warming since the industrial revolution.

In a parliamentary debate to ratify the Paris Agreement in 2016, Davies repeated the debunked trope that the climate has always been changing. In the same debate, he blamed the BBC for accepting “hook, line and sinker the so-called scientific consensus on climate change”.

In March 2018, in his regular column for the South Wales Argus, Davies accused the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of being “alarmists”. 

He also criticised the government’s approach to pursuing low carbon energy saying, “an unholy coalition of environmentalists working with big businesses have persuaded various British ministers to phase out cheap electricity from coal and gas and replace it with non-CO2 generating alternatives such as wind, solar and nuclear.” As a government whip, Davies will be partly responsible for delivering the government’s agenda, including its climate policy and pledge to make UKemissions net-zero by 2050. 

The Conservative’s 2019 general election manifesto said the party supported the development of new offshore wind power and nuclear energy, would not support fracking for shale gas, and would “lead the global fight against climate change”. Those messages were echoed in today’s Queen’s speech laying out the government’s agenda, alongside re-affirming the government’s commitment to hosting next year’s annual UN climate talks and creating a “world-leading” green watchdog.

Davies has not responded to questions from DeSmog about whether he fully supports the government’s position on climate change and agrees with mainstream science on the seriousness of climate change.

DeSmog has previously reported on how Boris Johnson’s first cabinet, which remains largely unchanged, was one of the least amenable to climate action in recent history. 

Davies’ position on climate change echoes that of Leader of the House of Commons, Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has likewise publicly doubted the veracity of mainstream climate science and blamed “climate alarmism” for energy prices.

Johnson has himself previously questioned what he described as the “conventional doctrine of climate change”, and admitted to consulting notorious climate science denier Piers Corbyn, calling him a “great physicist and meteorologist”. 

The Prime Minister’s views appear to have evolved since then, though the government’s official advisors the Committee on Climate Change last week felt compelled to write and urge him to get the UK’s “house in order” regarding climate action.


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winters like summers — in france...

Weather: 27.8 ° C in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 27 ° C in the Var ... heat records broken in February

The phenomenon is primarily meteorological, but it follows the same trends as the summer heat waves intensified by global warming.

Almost 28 ° C in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, up to 27 ° C in the Var, almost as much in Biarritz: new heat records were recorded, Monday, February 3, on the occasion of an exceptional episode of mild winter weather in France.

The highest temperature, 27.8 ° C, was recorded in Cambo-Les-Bains, in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, according to Météo France.

Sunday had already seen several heat records fall. During the night, “high minimum temperature records” were also recorded “in the central regions or near the Mediterranean”, according to Météo-France: 14.7 ° C in Clermont-Ferrand, “a value worthy of summer ”, 18 ° C in Calvi, 15.3 ° C in Montpellier, or 12.5 ° C in Dijon.

"New temperature records beaten upward, the surface of the globe warming ... this is what Europe is going through this winter. In the long term, alarming consequences for biodiversity are to be feared. One watchword: #GeneralMobilization, "the ministry of ecological transition launched on Twitter on Monday afternoon in response to these serial records.

Because if the phenomenon is primarily meteorological, it shows the same trends as the summer heat waves intensified by global warming.

The softness is initially caused by "drafts of west - southwest which bring us warm air from the Azores and the subtropical Atlantic", explained Sunday to AFP François Jobard, weather forecaster -France. But, with global warming, "globally we have warmer air masses than before, therefore, in an equal meteorological situation, we tend to beat more records of warmth than in the past".

Cars, industry, meat ... What are the causes of global warming in France?

Particularly mild winter

This "sweet peak" occurred against the background of an already particularly mild winter. Thus, the months of December and January combined constitute the second hottest start to winter since at least 1900, behind the start of winter 2015-2016, according to Météo-France.

Over these two months, the national average temperature stood at 7.6 ° C, "a positive anomaly of 2.3 degrees above the climatological average over this period, which is 5.3 ° C" .

The gentle wave should end on Tuesday, with marked cooling and maximum temperatures of 9 to 14 ° C from Brittany to the Pyrenees and 12 to 17 ° C over the Mediterranean regions, a drop associated with the arrival of a storm, called Hervé, which will particularly affect the Alps and Corsica.



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Read also: this isn't a prophecy...


snow balls delivered by choppers...


A decree by the Haute-Garonne departmental council has been implemented in the face of snowfall deficit.

The resort of Luchon-Superbagnères, in Haute-Garonne, is facing, like its neighbouring resorts, a [massive] deficit of snow during the school holidays due to record high temperatures. The snow is essential for the operation of the station. To ensure a sufficient level of activities, the Haute-Garonne Departmental Council (the manager of the station) organised a major rescue: two snow drops by helicopter, in order to service the area for beginners, and therefore maintain the skiing-schools activities.

The first operation took place Friday, February 14, as shown in this video made by a store manager of the station and broadcast by France 3 Occitanie. The second is scheduled for Saturday 15.


Read from top. Translation by Jules Letambour.