Sunday 15th of September 2019

more climate change...

more warming

This image of Uluru was composed by Gus (using Gus's own pictures) and can be used by anyone. Read more...

May I plead with you?
Tell all your friends, tell all your families, acquaintances, enemies... everyone, especially the media raconteurs (journos and opinionators) and your local politician (whether in Australia or in any other countries) about this particular article... You can tell these people about the rest of this site as well, especially those on global warming, but this article here is HIGHLY important to my life and yours — far more important than those about the lying Bushes of this world...

The biosphere of the earth is warming up, fast.
The deniers would have you believe that this is not happening or that it "can't happen". Bollocks.

it has been estimated that 500 million years ago and possibly 120 million years ago, the centre of Australia was covered by an "inland sea" That shallow sea was connected to the greater ocean north and south. The world sea level was higher than it is today, of course. Enough sea to let the picture above be a reasonable interpretation of those times. Eventually when the sea retreated, the salt from its evaporation and run-off ended up in Lake Amadeus and Lake Eyre (a large salt-lake 14 metres below present sea level). Uluru as it is known to the Aboriginal people of the centre of Australia is a rock (sacred rock to them), presently an island in a "sea of earth", but in those time-past was an island in shallow seas.

500 million years ago, the "rock" had been part of a plateau of sedimentation origin (deposited about 600 million years ago in a shallow sea as well), that had broken away from its original Karst (the Nullarbor plain in southern Western Australia is a flat Karst — sometimes considered the largest monolithic piece of "rock' on earth — about 700 by 500 kilometres). The break up of Uluru was created, and up-ended at about 85 degrees to near vertical, by progressive geological turmoil including the seas...

The "rock" became thus at some stage, an island. The climate was warmer.

Make no mistake, times such as these HAPPENED before on this planet and in geological time spans, not that long ago.

And despite what the deniers are throwing at the reality, the earth is presently "galloping" fast towards an extraordinary warming of magnitude not too distant from that of those times.

The present culprit is CO2 mostly.

Read climate change line of articles to understand the possible changes.
At this stage, it is my latest learned opinion that "without warning", climate change could progressively go as high as 14 degree C above present average, by 2100.

This would only involve a rise of 0.15 degree C per year worldwide and this is not out of the range of what is happening. Much bigger increase in temperature (in heat-energy) per annum happened at times, 12-10,000 years ago, during the last big melt...

As the "ice of the world" is presently melting at a much faster speed that our climate change models have anticipated (climate change models are quite conservative) there is a dangerous illusion of plateau-ing of warming, as the energy is mostly "absorbed" by the melting of the ice, but soon the temperature hike will race-off again, beyond our wildest anticipation. And the sun activity, slightly dormant at the moment, might kick in to boot.

It is my personal learned prediction, based on past events such as described in the picture above, that by 2032, the warming will have reached at least 1.5 degree extra on present average, and that by 2070, warming will have reached 3 degree C extra than present average.  By 2100 or thereabout, a full blown rise of 12 degree C is not out of the question. From 2070, the range opens upto between 9 and 13 degree C... But should by 2032, temperature already reached 2 degree extra on present average, the range in 2100 is on a higher scale...

A 12 degree on to top of present average means that Singapore would get temperature of above 40 degree C all year round (some days, the cloud cover makes it drop to about 36-37, other days it would reach 45-50 degree C).
This means too that Sydney's winter temperature would be 25 degree C on average — and summertime temperature could be 38 degree C on average. One can still survive in such condition, albeit with restrictions, but the relationship of Australia and the southern Antarctic ocean may create some days at 56 degree C and days at 25 degree C in summer. Please note: the earth has experienced such high (55 plus) temperatures before, even during the mesozoic period.

A single dry day at more than 48 degree C (Sydney has experienced temperature of 45 degrees C before) could wipe out nearly 50 percent of exotic plants and 20 percent of native plants... Bush fires could wipe out a lot of plants too. The process slowly baring the land. Remember last February Victorian bush fires saw temperatures above 47 degree C and winds at more than 50 knots fanning the flames.
--------------
Should you be living in the temperate world, you will likely experience temperatures on average 12 degrees C higher than now by 2100‚ and sea level at least 15 metres higher than now. Mitigating factors could tone this down at tad — such as cloud cover and massive storms modifying this picture by 4 to 6 degree C lower on some days, but it would still be massively uncomfortable as average of temperature would be 12 degree higher than present. Hotter days could be 25-30 degree C above your present average. Most crops would fail... And the rest of crops be wiped out by droughts and storms. Most wild animal life would suffer greatly...
For example, It has been predicted by global warming models, that in the middle of this century, droughts in Australia would occur 40 per cent more frequently than now (!), even with a projected modest rise of 2 degree C by 2100.

But in my present prediction, the faster rise of temperature between 2032 and 2070 (give 5 years either side) could modify this, due to rising sea levels and added humidity in the atmosphere... By 2100, the middle of Antarctica, presently experiencing temperatures of minus 50+, would be on average 25 degree warmer. Thus on the edges, there would no ice and a fast shrinking layer of ice at the centre...

As the political systems of the world are not doing enough to reduce emissions of CO2, and as our moronic Liberals in Australia are wasting our time, It is my learned opinion, we have to prepare for the worse.

This is not armageddon, but uncomfortable high heat that will leave little time for species to adapt.. and sea levels that will take away much low coastal areas of continents...

You have been warned.

survival of the coolest...

My next comments here will be to explain how to prepare and to survive global warming individually, since our governments are not doing enough to reduce our emissions.

Good luck...

dib dib dib...

We need to be afraid and we need be prepared..


The problem of global warming is far more serious than worrying about hurting the stupid ego of a denier like Abbott. But deniers need to be flushed out, either by anger or humour, then converted to the reality of global warming. Not an easy task when they are entrenched in brain-washed alleluias and greed-and-war-is-good motivation. May be we should find a dark alley somewhere...

Coal, gas and oil has helped humanity develop to where it is, but in the process, humanity has not realised the dangers of doing so. Recent urbanisation is the result of finding and using this "cheap energy".

Not so strangely, the "urban heat" (usually a few degrees above rural heat) is NOT counted in the global warming models but should it be, it would show a substantial increase in the present effect of global warming..

Meanwhile we need to be prepared.


* We need to decentralise the supply of energy into neutral carbon energy — against the strong resistance from the profitering "centralists" who collect dues and control flow of the added carbon. Note that supply can problematically fluctuate more when reduced to much smaller scale. Individual supply or community supply should be developed though.

* We need to build well-separated isothermic dwellings that do not use energy — easier than it looks, but councils need to become partners in this process.

* We need to focus on communal food production (reduce the need of transportation), rather than industrial food production — against the strong resistance from the patent-food manufacturers and suppliers of super-phosphate who have the ears of most governments.

* Transportation needs to be totally carbon neutral. This is not as easy as it looks, but not impossible.

* We need to ARREST all deforestation NOW.

* We need to plant more trees.

* We need to stabilise and then reduce our world human population

* We need to rethink our economic value system completely

* As an unambiguous decision of care, we need to protect other species from what we have unleashed
-----------------
ALL OF THIS BEFORE 2015.
--------------
My next comments will be to expand on each point listed above.
Good Luck. Peace.

be alert...

The EPA report said governments have three options to deal with sea-level rise: They can stay on the well-worn path of building expensive protection and raising streets and buildings. They can beat an organized retreat from the shore, perhaps by offering financial incentives to people and organizations to move inland. Or they can allow people to do whatever they want for their waterfront properties but tell them in no uncertain terms that they are on their own when the waters rise.

In Hampton Roads, planners and environmentalists said the EPA recommendations are on the table. Bernick called the report “useful.” John Boon, a professor emeritus at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science who has studied sea-level rise for years, called it “very well reasoned.”

Most people aren’t taking the threat of sea-level rise decades from now too seriously, but planners say it is worrisome when you consider what’s at stake — public roads, schools, bridges, tunnels, museums, police stations and housing developments that are built to last well beyond the average 30-year home mortgage.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-new-way-of-thinking-as-sea-levels-rise/2011/06/23/AGq96TmH_story.html?hpid=z4

 

see toon and story at top....

what is global warming?

 

Climate variations.

 


Since the earth was formed 4.6 billions years ago, the atmosphere has gone through many changes — including in its gaseous composition, warming and cooling.
For the last 50 million years, observation of the geological record tell us that climatic conditions have only been moderately variable, with cool and warm periods. For the last one million years this has been the case with a near rhythmic "regularity" in a small range of variability. 
The consensus of many scientists is that the earth should be entering an ice age now, but we are not. The planet is contrarily warming up — fast, if one considers geological timeframe.

What causes ice ages and warm periods?
There are may factors that influence climatic patterns, including volcanoes, earth axis wobbles, flora and fauna, meteorite impacts and the gaseous mix of the atmosphere.

What does the scientific record tell us?
The record, especially that from ice core samplings, tells us that the major influence over climatic changes for the last million years has been variations of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere.
The carbon surface equation is mostly played out between atmosphere, oceans, flora and fauna — resulting in variability of CO2 in the atmosphere
Scientific experiments and calculations have confirmed that lesser amounts of CO2 are associated with ice ages, while more CO2 is associated with warmer periods...

How do we know that?
The record clearly shows a parallel between increase and decrease of temperature much in step with increase and decrease of CO2, with some variations due to dust particle amount and other minor factors.
Scientific experiments on infra-red light (heat) absorption and calculations can define that CO2 and methane are warming gases, while O2 is a cooling gas, in the atmosphere...
We also know that the major warming gas in the atmosphere is water vapour.

The consequence of the CO2-temperature relationship:
For the last million years, the natural carbon dioxide cycle has more or less oscillated between 180 and 300 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. 
The relationship between temperature and CO2 clearly shows that between 180 and 300 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, the difference in the temperature of the atmosphere and the surface of the planet has invariably been around 10 degrees Celsius.. 
The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the more heat. Less CO2, colder. 
Simple.
Simple, though the processes that lead to the variations in the natural level of CO2 in the atmosphere are complex, and include many feedback mechanism, including variation of humidity as clear water vapour (hygrometry) and humidity as opaque water vapour (clouds) —as well as flora, fauna and oceans ability to absorb CO2.

What is the influence of CO2 in the atmosphere?
Even in small proportions, CO2 and methane are warming gases in the atmospheric gaseous mix.
CO2 also modifies water vapour behaviour, the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
As shown in the scientific record, the relationship with warmer atmosphere and higher CO2 level is  undeniable. 
Some the warming (energy) of the planet's surface goes also into warming the seas.

What are humans doing?:
On top of the natural carbon dioxide cycle, humans have been adding EXTRA CO2 (and methane) in the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel since the industrial revolution. Undeniable.
This EXTRA CO2 ADDS TO the natural carbon cycle: At present there is about 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere (100 ppm more than in the maximum natural cycle of CO2 in the last million years).
It can be estimated with some accuracy that nearly 200 of these ppm have been added by humans burning fossil fuels since precise measurement of CO2 ppm were made in the late 1800s — about 40 years after the industrial revolution.

What to expect:
The human generated EXTRA CO2 is adding EXTRA energy to the surface of the planet through more heat. Simple.
This leads to the warming of the air, of the land and especially of the seas with two main consequences: increase of the volume of the sea water — leading to rise in sea levels — and increase in evaporation  — leading to more humidity in the atmosphere but a small lowering of surface sea temperature in a feedback mechanism.
This evaporation can lead to more clear water vapour (wamer) and clouds (resulting in dimming— a reduction of diurnal surface temperature, but retention of heat during the night as a feedback mechanism). 
As we've witnessed, this increased humidity is likely to lead to more severe atmospheric disturbances such as heavier rainfall, more snow in colder regions and stronger storms.
The warming of the atmosphere also leads to the melting of glaciers around the world and to the thinning of polar ice caps.
The complexity of the processes involved simply computes into a major relationship: The more global warming — the more more storms, stronger storms and higher sea levels.

The present:
Many "weather" parameter records (123 records) were broken in Australia's summer 2012-13. Many records were also broken in the UK, in Europe and in the USA — and in China and India... These record parameters can be either warmer, colder, drier or wetter. 
In general the trend of yearly average, the world temperature is going up, with more numerous and stronger atmospheric disturbances.

The future:
The intensity of heat-waves and violent storms will increase. Coastal properties will be lost to higher tidal surges. Cyclone/hurricane/typhoon patterns will go further north in the northern hemisphere and further south in the southern hemisphere. This is already happening (Sandy in the US and recent storms along the East coast of Australia.
By the year 2100 (only 87 years from now), the temperature average on the surface of the planet will have risen by a minimum of 4 degrees Celsius EXTRA at the present rate of warming. Sea level will have risen by 45 centimetres minimum. 
Less rare events, like the record heat we experienced recently in Sydney (45.8 degrees) will see temperature of 50+ degrees Celsius in Summer. 
Take note that these extremes WON'T STOP developing by 2100. 
On present rate of CO2 increase, BY 2150 THE EXTREME WEATHER WILL HAVE INCREASED BY ANOTHER 4 DEGREES Celsius MINIMUM.
By then, people will experience temperature of 55+ degrees Celsius in Summer in Sydney. 
That is the future we are facing. 

WHAT CAN WE DO?:
At present, the only effective solution is to rapidly reduce and stop human EXTRA emissions of CO2 from ANY fossil fuel source.
Geo-engineering has been proposed as one of the answer to climate change: solutions range from re-sequestration of carbon in CO2 format, artificial dimming by using cloud-particles and shields. Most (all) of these solution are impractical, costly and/or only short term — as humans burn more and more fossil fuels, despite renewable energy sources implementation. 
Global warming — of the magnitude we have been unleashing by burning fossil fuels — has happened in the past before some of the earth's surface carbon had been sequestered by such processes as extinction, cooling and/or geological/extra-terrestrial upheavals.
During one such global warming, the sea level was about 100 metres above present level (see illustration at top). This is not science fiction. This is not Hollywood's "Waterworld". This is the scientific record.
Global warming events have usually lead to extinction of many species, the bodies of which eventually formed huge coal seams (flora) and oil pockets (microscopic fauna in the shallow seas) that we are now re-birthing as fossil fuels... 

We are raising and burning the dead, from a past aeon in the planet's history.
Thus we are adding EXTRA carbon to the surface carbon amount that has been quantitatively constant for the past one million years, in whatever form.

The speed and scope of the present process is alarming scientists. 
The last big melt took about 2,000 years to increase average world temperatures by 4 to 6 degrees Celsius. On present calculation, our burning of fossil fuel (creating CO2) is adding about the same on top — IN LESS THAN 250 YEARS. And the upper limit, once Albedo and forcing are taken into account, could be more than 12 degrees Celsius above present temperature levels. This is not science-fiction. Science knows.
Though predicting the timeframe of events in the future is not possible, we know that the scale, scope and probability of these events are on the cards.
Once more, global warming is one of the biggest challenge faced by life on this planet, apart from being hit by a huge meteorite which is not out of the question.

Present global warming is entirely of human origin. 
Either way, global warming or meteorite, the damage is always massive. Not Armageddon, but very destructive. Such events have led to massive extinction in the past. The speed of the current event should ring enormous alarm bells in our general public brains. 

It is up to us to either choose to be careless now and damage the future for our descendants or to make a serious effort into protecting this future by limiting the present damage we're doing to the planet surface and atmosphere in particular — even if we, mere mortals, cannot see nor feel the heat of global warming directly with our senses. As I have mentioned before, should we feel "global warming" rising temperatures, we would have five years maximum to live. Science is there to tell us before it is too late. The science of the IPCC is accurate. Global warming in on, fast and furious...

The future is in our hand... But the media does not want you to know.

Gus Leonisky

 

an inland sea to see...

It seems Charles Sturt, Thomas Mitchell and other early European explorers tramping the scorching deserts of Australia in search of an inland sea were a few thousand years too early.
According to maps published by National Geographic, Australia will one day get an inland sea if global warming continues and melts the world’s ice caps and glaciers, lifting sea levels by about 70 metres.
The US-based organisation said it would take about 5000 years for all the ice to melt, although impacts will hit coastal communities much sooner – and having an inland sea won’t be much consolation to Australians.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/what-the-world-would-look-like-if-all-the-ice-melts-20131107-2x2p9.html#ixzz2jvdP3Pv6

See image at top...

when the sea rose...

Sunshine Coast University marine geographer Patrick Nunn and University of New England linguist Nicholas Reid believe that 21 Indigenous stories from across the continent faithfully record events between 18,000 and 7000 years ago, when the sea rose 120m.

Reid said a key feature of Indigenous storytelling culture – a distinctive “cross-generational cross-checking” process – might explain the remarkable consistency in accounts passed down by preliterate people which researchers previously believed could not persist for more than 800 years.

“The idea that 300 generations could faithfully tell a story that didn’t degenerate into Chinese whispers, that was passing on factual information that we know happened from independent chronology, that just seems too good to be true, right?” Reid told Guardian Australia.

“It’s an extraordinary thing. We don’t find this in other places around the world. The sea being 120 metres lower and then coming up over the continental shelf, that happened in Africa, America, Asia and everywhere else. But it’s only in Australia that we’re finding this large canon of stories that are all faithfully telling the same thing.”

read more: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/16/indigenous-australian-storytelling-records-sea-level-rises-over-millenia

For those familiar with this web site, you would remember we have long expressed the concept that Aboriginal people have recorded in paintings the rise of sea levels. In Arnhem Land, the change of sea level brought new species of fish into the coastal areas. This time is defined as "the Estuarine period". 

 

Meanwhile:

Even if world manages to limit global warming to 2C — the target number for current climate negotiations — sea levels may still rise at least 6 meters (20 ft) above their current heights, radically reshaping the world’s coastline and affecting millions in the process.

That finding comes from a new paper published on Thursday in Science that shows how high sea levels rose the last time carbon dioxide levels were this high.

That was about 3m years ago, when the globe was about 3-5F warmer on average, the Arctic 14.4F warmer, megasharks swam the oceans, and sea levels stood at least 20 ft above their current heights.

read more: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/10/scientists-predict-huge-sea-level-rise-even-if-we-limit-climate-change

 

This slowly but surely merges with Gus' own prediction posted on this site in 2005 but calculated by Gus in 1994.

warming and destroying the planet...

 

Also on Monday, NASA confirmed that scientists have never recorded a hotter summer than this year's. When taken together, temperatures for June, July, and August were 1.4 degrees hotter than the long-term average, passing the previous hottest summer, 1998. Unlike Japan's study, NASA says this August was very narrowly the second hottest August on record (behind 2014).

And finally, major research from the United Kingdom's Met Office released this week concluded that 2015's overall temperatures are running at or near record levels (at about 0.684 degrees above the 1981-2010 average)—which suggests the next two years could be the hottest on record around the world.

"We know natural patterns contribute to global temperatures in any given year, but the very warm temperatures so far this year indicate the continued impact of (manmade) greenhouse gases," said Stephen Belcher from the Met Office, in a news release. "With the potential that next year could be similarly warm, it's clear that our climate continues to change."

The Met Office says this year's El Niño— the global climate event that occurs every five to seven years, bringing drought to places like Australia while heaping rain on the western United States—is likely contributing to record temperatures. (Sadly, it's unlikely to help quench California enough to break the drought.)

read more: http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/09/nasa-met-office-hottest-year-august-summer

 

Meanwhile:

 

 

The populations of some marine species have declined by 49 per cent in just four decades, according to one of the most extensive surveys of sealife ever compiled.

The Living Blue Planet Report, just released by World Wildlife Fund (WWF) in collaboration with the Zoological Society of London, documents the extraordinary losses, which occurred from 1970 to 2012. Alarmingly, some fish species were found to have declined by almost 75 per cent.

The authors of the report attribute the dramatic population drops to human-driven climate change as well as to habitat loss, overexploitation and pollution.

Marine life facts
  • Populations in the Scrombidae fish family, which include tuna, mackrel and bonito, declined 74 per cent between 1970 and 2010
  • Around one in four species of sharks, rays and skates is now threatened with extinction,
  • International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List classifies four turtle species as endangered or critically endangered – hawksbill, Kemp's ridley, green and loggerhead
  • Over 25 per cent of all marine species live in coral reefs, and yet they cover less than 0.1 per cent of the ocean
  • Nearly 20 per cent of mangrove cover lost between 1980 - 2005
  • Seagrass has declined by 30 per cent over last century
Source: Living Blue Planet Report

 

"In less than a human generation, we can see dramatic losses in ocean wildlife -- they have declined by half -- and their habitats have been degraded and destroyed," said Mr Brad Ack, senior vice president for oceans at WWF.

"Driving all these trends are humans actions: from overfishing and resource depletion, to coastal development and pollution, to the greenhouse gas emissions causing ocean acidification and warming."

The findings were determined after researchers surveyed more than 10,000 populations of 3,038 marine species, including fish, birds, mammals and reptiles. The report estimates that close to one-third of the world's fish stocks are overfished, and one in four species of sharks, rays and skates are threatened with extinction.

read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-16/half-marine-life-lost-in-40-years/6779912

 

 

hot water...

A new analysis conducted by a Chinese research paper published on Friday in a peer-reviewed journal entitled ‘2017 Was the Warmest Year on Record for the Global Ocean' detailed the last year to be the hottest year for ocean temperatures since records began being kept.

 

"The long-term warming trend driven by human activities continued unabated," stated researchers Lijing Cheng and Jiang Zhu, in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

"The high ocean temperatures in recent years have occurred as greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere have also risen, reaching record highs in 2017," added the authors of the report, cited by Commondreams.org.

Commenting on the newly-released data, thermal sciences professor John Abraham with the University of St. Thomas School of Engineering, Minnesota, noted that almost all of the globe's heat is stored in the oceans.

"In terms of understanding how fast the Earth is warming, the key is the oceans," Abraham said, cited by The Guardian.

The sharp rise in global temperatures revealed that 2017 was the hottest on record for Earth's oceans "by far," according to the professor.

Although minor temperature fluctuations each year are considered to be within statistical norms, particularly as natural meteorological cycles such as the Pacific Ocean's El Niño/La Niña affect global weather patterns, Abraham asserted that, "the long-term upward trend that extends back many decades does prove global warming."

"The human greenhouse gas footprint continues to impact the Earth system," noted the study's researchers, pointing out that long term consequences include not just a sea level rise, but also "declining ocean oxygen, bleaching of coral reefs, and melting sea ice and ice shelves," cited by Phys.org.

"The consequences of this year-after-year-after-year warming have real impacts on humans," noted Abraham.

Read more:

https://sputniknews.com/environment/201801281061126294-worlds-oceans-hot...

 

Read from top and every where global warming is mentioned on this site since 2005.