Saturday 31st of July 2021

the greed new deal...






















The quickest way to loose or make money is to bet money on an outcome against another betting agent, hoping that the bank/other party/betting agent isn’t going to go broke before the date of outcome, making your bet worthless. This is why you can bet against this eventuality with another party, like an insurance in reverse such as default swaps, that is to say you get money from the insurer, rather than paying an insurance fee. Unfortunately, should you loose on your bet, you will have to repay all the moneys plus a massive penalty to the insurers, on top of the payout agreed with your counter-betting agent. This game is not for bleeding hearts, nor paupers. 



To state that such ventures can soon become a set of entangled complexities in order to minimise the risks, would be an understatement. Every bet is a minuscule atom is a bigger picture of generalised gambling madness. We don’t know the future. If we did, we would not bet on such outcomes. 


In nature the relationship between prey and predator balances out by the numbers of preys versus the numbers of predators. The more prey is caught, the less predators there can be in a natural confined environment. Betting derivatives beats this balance by only placing a time limit on an unlimited amount of prey-catching possibilities that reduces to two options: you win or you loose. “Faîtes vos Jeux!”. Here the odds are only time limited not value restricted. In order to play the game, one needs LOTS of cash reserve, that make a crown casino look like a pauper’s homeless abode. Owning a bank or a hedge fund is a plus.


So far, our financial institutions have been established on the concept that there is no limit — only "conflation" of the ever expanding system. This is growth like cancer. Our greed is thus transmigrated by hypocritical sociopathy through gains and losses of mega-magnitude that demands no restraint. We live or die (we soon recover with a successful bet) financially with hope of richness rather than feeding a need. This has been the human condition for millennia, leading to wars, structural hierarchies (royal and religious) and robbery. And “we” (our leaders, our institutions and most of us) love it… Of course we have created laws that are somewhat interpretable by lawyers to give the illusion of stability and control in the pandemonium — all designed to keep the majority of humans in a submissive situation, in order for the rarified elites to play on the chessboard of amusingly loaded deception. 


In most (all) cases, betting involves some kind of deception and manipulation of the outcomes. Poker face isn’t a signal for nothing. Luck has little to do with the results — as manipulation of perception through media and opinions can lower or raise the value of what we bet for, before the “échéance” (due settlement date of the bet). We, the plebs, are not pawns, but the derivative-illiterate squares of the playing field, used as stepping stones by the greedy. We don’t fall to the enemy. We just plod solidly.


This would be infinitely entertaining if the cost was merely fictitious cash, and only related to human desires in an infinite universe… But the bets are destroying the planet...


The biggest bet of course has been about the notion of god. There is no limit on “His” (god is a male) bounty and “His” wrath. We bet on the notion of eternity with ignorant fervour. This has been the greatest deception imposed on the plebs by the controllers. 


Big Brother is as ancient as Babylon, 3,000 BC. Rather than being a novel about the future, 1984 was a looking glass futuristically illustrating the past. But we were (and still are) too proud and illused in our freedom-tight-butt to understand this… We saw 1984 as an amusing warning about things to come rather than a situation of where we were at, and came from… Doublespeak is the language of religious beliefs and of economists. 


At present, there is an “alien revival”… We’re bombarded by a few movies and mediatic visions about “alien things” in the sky mostly in the US — though the Rooskies are also giving their two bobs worth about the “possibility" of being visited by “aliens”. You mean some super-intelligent beings visiting Planet Stupido?  Some people (tall- and short-story tellers) would even venture that the presence of aliens is to warn us about what we’re doing wrong to this place. According to Gus precise calculations, the chance of aliens visiting us is about ZERO in a hundred trillion billion precisely. Our better venture is to play our own gambling games with delusions. As Caitlin Johnstone writes, seconded by Gustaphian himself, this floury of alien news is designed to increase the budgets of armies… You can bet on that...


I binged watching Dr Who all night”… is a line in the Icelandic series, Stella Blomkvist, presently on SBS… You work it out... 


Since awakening to economic values, beyond stealing from each other, and from religious submission, the new big game has thus been “democratic economics”… Same "spiritual” (filling our mind with) important bullshit than the godly adventures, this new level of thoughts gives us all, a chance to participate on a equal footing to the general looting, in order to loose our pants at the profit of the clever manipulators nonetheless. The rich get richer, the poor stay poor… We’re mugged as we “hope” we will benefit from playing… We should realise the dices are crooked and the cards are marked… But we play anyway. We’re born suckers and most of the time we smugly love the thrill of the risks. We go and break a leg on the ski slopes thinking we’re Olympic champs...


Many expert have no clue about “derivatives” either. They are nuclear bombs. This market of risky big potatoes overlays the annual world economy by more than 3,000 per cent. One can only win as long as someone else loses. Not everyone can win, but everyone can loose even if you win, should one of the players become insolvent (rare). A deviation of 2 percent losses on the derivative market could lead to loosing more than half of the world economy overnight. Risk is massive — and only the best mathematicians who have the skill to counter-bet their own adventures can manage this game of economic suicide. 



What Is a Derivative?


A derivative is a "contract” (a serious bet) between two or more parties, the value of which is based on an agreed-upon underlying financial value such as an asset (like a security) or set of assets (like an index) reaching (being at) a certain trending level — at maturity (due date). Common valued items include bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, market indexes, and stocks. The contract is in the form of a precisely time-defined bet.


Derivatives either mitigate risk (hedging) or assume risk with the expectation of commensurate reward (speculation).

The fluctuations of the values of the asset will eventually be judged at maturity of the bet, not at the end of time… And your bet could be a few hours out. The trend being up one minute and down the next. People sweat.


Derivatives were originally used to ensure exchange rates more or less balanced the value of goods internationally traded. With the fluctuating values of national currencies, international traders needed a system to account for differences. Today, derivatives are based upon a wide variety of transactions and have many more uses. There are even derivatives based on weather data, such as the amount of rain or the number of sunny days in a region.


And all this “economic” activity has so far being blind to the environmental damage they have done by promoting industrialisation and the burning of fossil fuels. And some Elon talks about Bitcoin using too much energy? Bitcoin is a small trillion dollar operator when considering the derivative market...



Meanwhile, according to Gus’ calculations, we have no more than 11 years before the grand fall of the cliff in regard to global warming. Should we let the derivatives be involved in reducing our emissions of CO2? Is it to late? or can we mitigate the risks? The future will tell us sooner than we think as Nature does not bet, but we do.


Gus  Leonisky


Dorky old kook...

good luck...


An extinct creature sometimes described as a “Siberian unicorn” roamed the Earth for much longer than scientists previously thought, and may have lived alongside humans, according to a study in the American Journal of Applied Science.

Scientists believed Elasmotherium sibiricum went extinct 350,000 years ago. But the discovery of a skull in the Pavlodar region of Kazakhstan provides evidence that they only died out about 29,000 years ago.


Unfortunately, despite its sizable horn, the “Siberian unicorn” looked more like a rhinoceros than the mythical creature its nickname refers to. It was about 6 feet tall, 15 feet long, and weighed about 9,000 pounds, making it more comparable to a woolly mammoth than a horse.






Gamma is the rate of change in an option's delta per 1-point move in the underlying asset's price. Gamma is an important measure of the convexity of a derivative's value, in relation to the underlying. A delta hedge strategy seeks to reduce gamma in order to maintain a hedge over a wider price range. A consequence of reducing gamma, however, is that alpha will also be reduced.


Basics of Gamma

Gamma is the first derivative of delta and is used when trying to gauge the price movement of an option, relative to the amount it is in or out of the money. In that same regard, gamma is the second derivative of an option's price with respect to the underlying's price. When the option being measured is deep in or out-of-the-money, gamma is small. When the option is near or at the money, gamma is at its largest. All options that are a long position have a positive gamma, while all short options have a negative gamma.


Gamma Behavior

Since an option's delta measure is only valid for short period of time, gamma gives traders a more precise picture of how the option's delta will change over time as the underlying price changes. Delta is how much the option price changes in respect to a change in the underlying asset's price.


As an analogy to physics, the delta of an option is its "speed," while the gamma of an option is its "acceleration."


Gamma decreases, approaching zero, as an option gets deeper in the money and delta approaches one. Gamma also approaches zero the deeper an option gets out-of-the-money. Gamma is at its highest when the price is at-the-money.


The calculation of gamma is complex and requires financial software or spreadsheets to find a precise value. However, the following demonstrates an approximate calculation of gamma. Consider a call option on an underlying stock that currently has a delta of 0.4. If the stock value increases by $1, the option will increase in value by $0.40, and its delta will also change. After the $1 increase, assume the option's delta is now 0.53. The 0.13 difference in deltas can be considered an approximate value of gamma.




If it appears that these two stories have no relation whatsoever, beware. The link is obvious(!??). We are chasing unicorns… Michael Brooks, a quantum physicist, denied the existence of unicorns when talking to the ghost of Cardano, Jerome Cardano (1501-1576) in his book “The QUANTUM ASTROLOGER’S HANDBOOK. But Michael Brooks was quite happy mentioning psi and "imaginary numbers". Hello? Cardano is well-known for having “invented” probable solutions to the uncertainty of gambling (playing with the derivative market is gambling) and the mathematical foundation for quantum physics. We have already mentioned Cardano here:





In mathematical logic and set theory, an ordinal collapsing function (or projection function) is a technique for defining (notations for) certain recursive large countable ordinals, whose principle is to give names to certain ordinals much larger than the one being defined, perhaps even large cardinals (though they can be replaced with recursively large ordinals at the cost of extra technical difficulty), and then “collapse” them down to a system of notations for the sought-after ordinal. For this reason, ordinal collapsing functions are described as an impredicative manner of naming ordinals.

The details of the definition of ordinal collapsing functions vary, and get more complicated as greater ordinals are being defined, but the typical idea is that whenever the notation system “runs out of fuel” and cannot name a certain ordinal, a much larger ordinal is brought “from above” to give a name to that critical point. An example of how this works will be detailed below, for an ordinal collapsing function defining the Bachmann–Howard ordinal (i.e., defining a system of notations up to the Bachmann–Howard ordinal).

The use and definition of ordinal collapsing functions is inextricably intertwined with the theory of ordinal analysis, since the large countable ordinals defined and denoted by a given collapse are used to describe the ordinal-theoretic strength of certain formal systems, typically[1][2] subsystems of analysis (such as those seen in the light of reverse mathematics), extensions of Kripke–Platek set theoryBishop-style systems of constructive mathematics or Martin-Löf-style systems of intuitionistic type theory.

Ordinal collapsing functions are typically denoted using some variation of either the Greek letter (psi) or (theta).



Now if you thought that the loonies playing the derivative market were dumb, think again. It takes an enormous amount of calculations, including intuitionistic type theory plus hope (vague thingy) based on complex trends, before placing a bet. We, the ordinary moron of Mugsville, would not have a clue as to throw the first dart in an English pub's bull's eye. We'd hit the door frame... Playing snooker to the highest level demands skills and understandings that bypass simple luck. Yet, THERE WILL BE WINNERS AND LOSERS... Cardano worked out the numbers and his “system” made him a superior gambler. And unicorns (Elasmotherium sibiricum) were a figment of nature’s imagination before the extinction of the beasts… 


We know nofin’. Nature to a great extend had played the same game for more than 4 billion years, and randomly gambles with better limits (birth and death, with time limits for different species) — and this is why LIFE HAS BEEN SO SUCCESSFUL. We've been trying to muck this up, possibly because homo sapiens is an unfinished inferior species that only managed to survived by the skills of deceit... Good luck anyway.