Monday 25th of January 2021

masterman...

rainbow

I was writing about the deceit from disingenuous bloggers about global warming... But then I had a correspondence with a person (XXX) in America that can shed some light upon this topic... Here is this email log:
-------------------------------------
XXX, 
I have been researching global warming in earnest since the late 1980s, but have been involved since the 1970s, in many projects in which climate change was paramount in the study of the evolution of plants and animals from 3.5 billion years ago. I saw your article in the YYYY... Thank you for presenting this complex subject as simply as possible with authority... Yet some of the comments attached to this article from readers defy belief. Some seem to come straight from comic books or scientifically illiterate and idiotic... 

Sorry to use words like this, but ignorance in my view is not bliss... Here is a recent post that I place on a website called yourdemocracy.net.au where our main plan of attack is satire, cartoons and proper information and analysis of many political issues... We have been tackling global warming since the onset of the website from various angles. Thanks for your attention. Best.

[http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/19279#comment-24049]
------------------------------------
to which XXX's answer was:
Gus, thanks for writing and for the attachment. I agree a lot of the comments posted to my piece were not particularly helpful nor reassuring about the level of scientific literacy out there. Thanks much...XXX
------------------------------------
I replied:
Hi XXX... Thanks for writing back... I have the feeling that, like many articles published on how global warming works — or promoting that global warming is real — your article was the target of a concerted orchestrated effort by "professional" denialists... (which also include creationists). This was going to be the subject of one of my next article at yourdemocracy.net.au... (yet to be posted). The same silly comments seem to appear over and over at the end of articles such as yours — all around the world...

In the same way as the tobacco industry used (still does?) websites to deny the effects of tobacco and used (still does?) bloggers to place pro-smoking comments everywhere, I am guessing the anti-global warming lobby has an "army" of paid (poorly paid — young students?) people working a network of anti-global warming websites — and posting anything anti-global warming, on all articles published on the internet, or in letters to the editors of newspapers. 

The idea of course is to divert away from the original "common sense" from good articles on global warming, by placing somewhat borderline ridiculous wild claims that some other "blogger" will attack, taking the discussion away from topic into obscure pits of ignorance — while forgetting the original article's relevance. 

Thus I would not be surprised if some of the "anti" and the "pro" people who comment, are coming from the same denialist-stable to give an impression of a debate — which is usually won by the denialists... as their "pros" often bring in unscientific and weak defense against the anti lobby who also make non-verifiable "scientific" claims but with more "passion"...

I hope this makes sense...


Best. G
-------------------------------

XXX replied:
wow, thats an interesting idea -- that some of the "pros" are actually "antis" in disguise...hmmmm....certainly one hears echoes in the denials, the constant invocations of al gore....thanks gus for writing. best, XXX 
-------------------------------
To which I finally replied:

I am presently writing a book called "the age of deceit"... (I hope to finish it before I die) ... Some of the chapters of which appear unedited in yourdemocracy.net.au... In one of the chapter, I make reference to "pros and cons" being stage managed by the same people in order to maintain doubt and steer the "truth" into the ditch. 

Science is not a matter of opinion. It's a matter of experiment and interpretations — interpretations that can be sustained by repeats of the experiment until proven otherwise. Most of science is highly accurate these days (even a Higgs boson can only be "proven" to 99.99999 %). 


But the smart fools are trying to tug our coat to tell us that they have a different "opinion"... Opinions come from beliefs... Even clever people create statistics and we build our own entire "democracy" on polls based on what people believe and, if the majority believes such, then that's the rule, even as unscientific or as whacko as it can be... 

By now you would have guessed Gus Leonisky is only a nom-de-plume behind which I hide in order to protect my sources... ASIO (the Australian spying agency) would know my identity since I came into this country and protested against the Vietnam War, against US armed nuclear warships entering Sydney Harbour and the like...

I think I mention the "other side" controlling the debate in "double-crossed"... (http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/6744#comment-8863 — sorry I do not do the automatic links in such correspondence as anti-virus software often rejects such emails). 

I make a reference to a certain J C Masterman who used to control double agents during WWII in the UK. I was put on to him by a highly respectable English woman (dead now) who used to be a spy in his Lebanon network... His work is fascinating and explains a lot of things we suspect but can't really place our finger upon...

Best. G

--------------------------------
End of this current correspondence, but hopefully more will come with YYY,  XXX and ZZZ... Who knows... I sometimes appears like a crackpot...
-------------------------------
But by now you would know where I am coming from... 
Science is under attack from well-orchestrated powerful sources. 

These include the "entrepreneurs", all the industries that depend on burning fossil fuels, the conservatives already mentioned, the creationists, and many of the churches and their sub-branches. All of these would use "organised" groups of "independent" 'letter-writers" and bloggers. Professional bloggers possibly paid by the post or group of posts. 
The tone and the consistency in the posts attached to discussions of global warming articles suggest these bloggers are not just doing so to satisfy their ideologies, but mostly to pander to their paying ideology masters who provides them with a wad of readymade posts... It's a bit like the recent "briefing notes" to the Liberal (Australian conservatives) politicians where answers to possible questions are pre-planned, pre-set and rigourously vague on substance, but full of sloganeering. 

I believe the professional bloggers would scour the internet for any article that explains climate change (or even mention it in passing) and they quickly take over the comment columns — saturating the whole lot with inane unscientific comments. They can even provide the "retorts" — comments that are weak and incomplete in the defense of global warming... 
It's a very well known trick that is akin to "double agents" and "agents provocateurs" who infiltrate a group of dedicated people until the time they can strike — such as during a peace protest that these agents make sure turns nasty... Usually these agents have discreet identification so they escape the police wrath and batons... Some groups have been known to be infiltrated by police... This a small example of what I mean:

http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/documents/nypd/dci-briefing-04252008.pdf

Here I repost a picture of such "police-agents" wearing "identifying" beanie and gloves during a bust-up disrupting a political meeting in Paris when I was visiting, late 60s?...
bust upPicture by Gus, circa 1969...
----------------------------------

Today is the release of the Climate Assessment 2011: State of the Climate in 2011:

"2011 was notable for many extreme weather and climate events. La Nina played a key role in many, but certainly not all of them," said Tom Karl, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Climatic Centre.

Last year was among the 15 warmest since records began in the late 1800s, and the Arctic warmed at about twice the rate of lower latitudes with sea ice at below average levels, according to the report.

Greenhouse gases from human pollution sources like coal and gas reached a new high, with carbon dioxide emissions exceeding 390 parts per million - up 2.10 parts per million from 2010 - for the first time since modern records began. [Gus note: the latest figure as of July 2012 is more than 400 ppm above the Arctic].

Despite the natural cooling trend brought by back-to-back La Nina effects, which chill waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, 2011 was among the 12 highest years on record for global sea surface temperatures.

The double La Nina punch influenced many of the world's significant weather events, like historic droughts in East Africa, the southern US and northern Mexico, the report said.

La Nina trends also were associated with the wettest two years on record in Australia.

An accompanying analysis in the same journal, titled "Explaining Extreme Events," examined the links between human-driven climate change and six selected weather crises in 2011, including the Texas drought that lasted half the year.

The authors found that "such a heat wave is now around 20 times more likely during a La Nina year than it was during the 1960s," said Peter Stott, climate monitoring and attribution team leader at the UK Met Office.

"We have shown that climate change has indeed altered the odds of some of the events that have occurred.

"What we are saying here is we can actually quantify those changing odds."

--------------------------------

Science dwelling in odds? 

Sure.... science is mostly about the study of "repeats" of experiments, observations and about formulation of such repeats. Through this study, science can make some startling highly accurate prognosis when all the factors are known and the equations are solid... If science was stupid or wrong your cell-phone would not work...

 

In complex systems such as global warming, the next predictions can be very iffy and demand some very spiffy mathematical permutations. But unlike the odds on horses or poker machines the scientific odds are closer to 99,999 per cent of certainty. When scientists are pointing out that they can quantify the odds, it means they can calculate the chance of repeats in a specific timeframe to near 99.999 per cent. 

 

Of course instrumentation error and the behaviour of nature can sometimes provide the wrong result. But on global warming, the science is accurate as much as that that helps your car move forward...

 

Since the 1930s, the study of many scientific discipline has sharpened our knowledge greatly. even earlier, some dedicated scientists were doing some astonishing experiments...

Imagine people disputing the speed of light today — first calculated in 1850!:

The Fizeau–Foucault apparatus (1850) was designed by the French physicists Hippolyte Fizeau and Léon Foucault for measuring the speed of light. The apparatus involves light reflecting off a rotating mirror, toward a stationary mirror some 20 miles (35 kilometers) away. As the rotating mirror will have moved slightly in the time it takes for the light to bounce off the stationary mirror (and return to the rotating mirror), it will thus be deflected away from the original source, by a small angle. If the distance between mirrors is h, the time between the first and second reflections on the rotating mirror is 2h/c (c = speed of light). If the mirror rotates at a known constant angular rate dθ/dt, the angle θ is given by:

f1

In other words the speed of light is calculated from the observed angle θ, known rate of rotation, and measured distance h as


f2

The detector is at an angle 2θ from the source direction because the normal to the rotating mirror rotates by θ, decreasing by θ both the angle of incidence of the beam and its angle of reflection.

Foucault based his apparatus on an earlier experiment by Fizeau who, in 1849, used two fixed mirrors, one partially obscured by a rotating cogwheel. Fizeau's value for light's speed was about 5% too high.


[Breguet] manufactured the rotating mirror Fizeau–Foucault apparatus, used by Léon Foucault and Hippolyte Fizeau to measure the speed of light (1850). Breguet was a precise clock maker engineer...  Other instruments were developed to do the same thing:

 

speed of light

These days, one can indulge with the dorks and nerds on the TV show with Sheldon, when they bounce a laser beam from the moon.

------------------------

But in contrast there were some doozies... The palaeotonlogical time lines were a bit wonky until better study were made of the fossil record. In 1930 for example, we had the dinosaurs only as far back as six million years ago. 

 

life on earth

 

Science needed some better tools to measure the age of stuff. The dating is complex but now is very precise in 2012... Nuclear decay, isotopes and better understanding of stratigraphy has given us a far better time line... Even the dorky Monckton accepts this latest time-line despite fluffing the science attached to it... But the creationist idiots still don't... The Earth is still flat and 6,000 years old as well as the universe? Idiots!... But they still blog on and on about "global warming being crap"... No sweat... they are entitled to their wrong opinions as long as it does not interfere with the process of mitigating anthropomorphic global warming.

 

Meanwhile the science of global warming is accurate to a high degree, unlike say meteorology which cannot predict accurately the local weather for the next three days, unless conditions are so hell-bent towards one way that prediction will be in the 80 per cent range. 

 

Global warming predictions are very conservatively restrained, at present... Thus the predictions are below what they should be  — this in order not to spook "people" and discretely entice governments to know better with the real figures... Meanwhile the past record of events such as the one just released is telling us that global warming science is on track... 

 

To put is simply in a schematic linear fashion: 

if one year there are 3 various locality events of say 3 magnitude, say we have a total of 9

Say the following year we have 2 various locality events of magnitude 5, say we have a total of 10

Say the following year we will have X various locality events of magnitude Y, influenced by the previous 2 years as it should. 

At this stage we cannot predict anything precise, but should we have a wad of earlier year records, we can established a fairly accurate prediction. We cannot make a local prediction where the events are going to occur nor as to their local intensity — even if we have more local statistical data. The local conditions predicitons will be less precise that the entire sum of all extrapolated local conditions predictions. Global trend become more apparent, despite apparently "chaotic" local conditions... 

 

Presently global warming science uses billions of items of data, all seemingly disparate but still converging precisely to give a clear picture of what is happening with a mathematically bracketed margin of error. 

 

Scientific experiments and calculations tell us CO2 is a "greenhouse" gas. Extra CO2 means more "greenhouse" effect. Some dorks argue against this as if the effect of CO2 would become "saturated". First this is totally incomsistent with the record and second it's not happening. That is a brilliant porkie that may work with fizzy drinks but does not work with the atmosphere unless we reach 3 gazillion ppm of the stuff... 

 

The proportion of CO2 influence on the atmosphere can be calculated precisely and in most cases it matches the palaeo-geological record within the margins of errors due to instrumentation and observations of the record. 

These days the margin of error is very small. Even in the early days in the 17th and 18th century, for example temperatures could be measured to a tenth of a degree Celsius...

But the bloggers and their silly arguments still push their barrow of silly unscientific emotional arguments pretending to know what they're talking about... They don't. "Passive smoking is not proven, even if you die from it..." that's their view.

We are lucky on this YD site... There is a clear policy that the real name of whoever posts comments — even with a fake name like me to protect the people who talk to me — has to be registered in the administrative record. Thus we don't get those monotonous annoying long lines of argumentative comments where Al Gore is ridiculed every second paragraphs... Here, we ridicule Lord Monckton for good reasons all the time, because he IS WRONG and can scientifically be proven so... 

May the anti-global warming "orchestrated" bloggers get their arse on fire and go to hell for spreading vile porkies...

 

http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/6744#comment-8863

 

study of repeats...

leaf

Photograph by Gus

This picture of a leaf close up illustrate clearly the notion of repeats, of uneven repeats, of pattern of repeats — thus bracketing of change and average of repeats. These changes can be influence by the ovoidal shape of the leaf but not necessarily. The colours are brought into the leaf by the age of the leaf as some parts are still alive while other parts are dead or dying...

 

The dying is circumstantial to many factors, including the age of the leaf, the exposure of the leaf to the sun, and the rain and the general health of the tree from which this leaf comes from. This is also influence by minerals available in the soil and the acidity/alkalinity of the soil...

a word from sir david...

Sir David [Attenborough] believes the washout summer may be down to climate change. As a credible explanation he points to research by the University of Sheffield which suggests melting Arctic ice has slowed the jet stream, causing it to break into loops which have ushered to the UK unseasonably cold and wet weather systems. And he is convinced humans are the main cause of this.

"There is no question that climate change is happening; the only arguable point is what part humans are playing in it," he says. "I would be absolutely astounded if population growth and industrialisation and all the stuff we are pumping into the atmosphere hadn't changed the climatic balance. Of course it has. There is no valid argument for denial."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/sir-david-attenborough-this-awful-summer-weve-only-ourselves-to-blame-7942405.html

alarm bells...

 

This edition of the four-yearly conference was remarkable for the unified message presented by the 2500 researchers. A statement, said to represent the participants, called for action on pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which are making the world's oceans more acidic as they absorb extra carbon dioxide from the air.

''This combined change in temperature and ocean chemistry has not occurred since the last reef crisis 55 million years ago,'' it said. ''A concerted effort to preserve reefs for the future demands action at global levels, but also will benefit hugely from continued local protection.''

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/coral-wonderland-at-tipping-point-20120713-2210n.html#ixzz20ZH8IX8U
see top article...

 

in the land where daylight saving fades the curtains...

 

A BODY representing nearly 70,000 Australian scientists has criticised a Queensland Liberal National Party resolution calling for mainstream climate science to be cut from the state's school curriculum.

LNP delegates at the party's state conference passed a motion yesterday calling on Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek to stop the teaching of ''environmental propaganda material, in particular post-normal science about climate change''.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/scientists-reject-lnp-school-move-20120713-221or.html#ixzz20dsrK2Dy

-------------------------

The idiocy of the people who elect our idiots to national prominence could astound me if I did not know better... 

 

freak... or climate change?

A freak wave of tornadoes in Poland has left at least one person dead and another 10 injured.

Local media said a national park was badly hit by one tornado that was between 800 and 1,000 metres wide.

One resident described the moment a tornado struck his property, felling trees and bringing down power lines.

"I was sleeping at the front of my house when a buzzing sound woke me up. I didn't know what was happening. I looked out and saw a huge number of branches," he said.

"Then there was a terrifying rumble. It all lasted for four or five minutes. When it all ended I looked around and saw that my yard was covered in fallen trees that had been growing nearby."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-16/wave-of-tornados-cut-swathe-across-poland/4132036

footprints in the rocks...

 

Last week, vandals partially destroyed a 115-million-year-old dinosaur footprint in an Australian national park.

Park rangers came across the damaged theropod footprint at Bunurong Marine Park, a marine park in Victoria, during a school group tour last week.

"It looked like somebody had taken to it with either a hammer or a rock, and had broken off sections of the toes," Victoria parks ranger Brian Martin told the BBC.

According to Martin, it appeared as though the vandals had intentionally targeted the prehistoric three-toed indentation, which is approximately 11 inches wide.

"They would need to know exactly where [the footprint] is to find it. Many people quite easily walk right past it," Martin said.

"For someone to damage it intentionally, you'd have to have a rough idea of where it is because seaweed grows on the rock platform and it looks like a normal rock until you look closely and see the outline of the footprint," Martin also told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

— 7 News Sydney (@7NewsSydney) December 20, 2017

​Paleontologists first came across the ancient imprint in 2006 in a tidal rock platform in Flat Rocks, Victoria, an area famous for its thousands of dinosaur fossil bones and teeth.

"The significance of the footprint is that it represents a moment frozen in time when a meat-eating dinosaur stood on that spot and left an impression of its foot," Victoria parks officials said last week, expressing their disappointment at the crime.

Authorities believe they may be able to partially restore the footprint using the broken pieces of rock with a rubber mold taken by paleontologists in 2006 to guide them.

 

Read more:

https://sputniknews.com/society/201712271060341183-vandals-destroy-dinos...

Read from top... Would this damage have been done by irate cretinists ... er, I mean creationists??... I've met some rabid loonies in that bunch...

 

police in yellow jackets...

Ever since November 17, France has been engulfed by 'gilets jaunes'. Photos and videos of yellow vest-toting protesters engaged in incendiary political action have spread far and wide - some observers have suggested undercover police officers may be mingling among the high-vis throngs, stirring up trouble in order to discredit the movement.

The protesters' grievances are manifold — fuel prices, high and rising living costs, tax reforms disproportionately impacting the poor, and the leadership of ever-increasingly despised French President Emmanuel Macron, to name just some — and their uniforms highly symbolic. All French motorists have been required by law since 2008 to keep high-visibility vests in their vehicles in the interests of road safety — but it's not merely citizens of France who've been drawn to the fluorescent crusade, as similar protests have erupted in nearby Belgium and the Netherlands.

If skeptics are correct however, undercover agitators may also be donning the totemic garments, walking covertly among the infuriated masses and rousing the crowds to vandalism and violence. Rumours some protesters may not be what they seem began circulating on social media not long after the movement sprouted, and quickly reached such a crescendo France's national police took to Twitter to counter the swelling accusation.

They told users to "beware of #fakenews" claims of "police officers in civilian clothing going undercover to break things."

"This is false. Like with all protests, police officers in civilian clothing discreetly make arrests and collect information on the march's movements," they added.

It's not merely officials who've sought to dismiss such suggestions — French photojournalist Louis Witter, who's covered numerous protests in the country, told France 24  the notion police officers were acting as agent provocateurs was "complete fantasy".

"It's routine to see police officers in civilian clothing assigned to follow the action and arrest protesters who have committed violent acts," he explained.

Video Evidence?

Nonetheless, some videos purporting to show ‘agents infiltre' at work provide somewhat compelling evidence of undercover operatives present among the yellow-vested multitudes, even if none document officers inciting violent actions.

Perhaps the most infamous clip to be uploaded to date — uploaded December 1, it's garnered almost six million views and over 7,000 shares in under a week — depicts masked individuals ambling through Paris' renowned Champs-Elysees. While they're in plain clothes, and some legitimate protesters have worn masks, the procession all wear red armbands, a signifier of plain-clothes police in France.

 

Read more:

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201812071070486882-gilets-jaunes-undercov...

---------------

 

Read from top... Note the picture of French cops (undercover while involved in provocation) in civvies wearing "white gloves' and special "beanies" to be recognised by police in uniform, when bashing "supposedly rioting" people who were just having a peaceful political meeting that the government did not like.

 

My own "yellow vest" (found at a Tempe dump a long time ago) has the word POLICE on the back... I thought it was a "cute" piece of art...