Tuesday 1st of December 2020

the tragedy of our inertia...

temp chart 3

Why it is important to tally the number of days above a certain temperature compared with similar period in past records...

Weather is subject to the various dynamics of climatic patterns. For example Sydney is at the confluent of four major weather influences:
The sea breezes, the westerlies, the southerlies and the easterlies. As well, there are somewhat short-lived northerly and southwest influences as wind shifts about, when lows or high weather system pass over and change from one system to the next, though sometimes the reversal of wind can be brutal, such as with the Southerlies.... 
In the past, interactions between these weather influences would limit the number of hot days, cold days, cloudy days or humid days... 
As the weather shifts under the influence of global warming — even with high and low diurnal/nocturnal temperature not in record book magnitude, the number of days in the higher range of temperature has increase dramatically... THIS has been part of the record temperatures as noted by the climate comission... MORE ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LONGER periods.
So where to now? As His Annoyingness Lord Monkcton is about to arrive in this country, tooted by His Crappiness Andrew Bolt, in April, to tell us that we're a bunch of prats for not believing in his denialism, March is also on the way to reach record weather "firsts" in this country. This after 123 climatic records were broken in December, January and February...
So far, a prudent estimate would place the average temperature for March at 2 degrees Celsius above average. On top of this, the numbers of days above 27 degrees has dramatically increased and so have the number of CONSECUTIVE days above 27 degrees Celsius — TO RECORD LEVELS by heaps... I know HEAPS is not a scientific measure but it should be alarming enough...
And even when maximum and minimum temperatures are below average (see diagram above), there is often more energy in the atmosphere than ever before, during a 24 hour period... 
Even the AAAS science magazine has a cover that emphasises significant present changes in the Arctic (due to global warming):

COVER Accumulation of algal biomass under thinning Arctic sea ice (image diameter ~25 meters). This photograph was taken on 17 September 2012 in the central Arctic basin at 85°30'47"N, 59°54'11"E, from the bridge of the research vessel Polarstern. Here, the central ice floe is surrounded by a green cloud of sub-ice diatoms. Current trends in sea-ice thinning may influence algal growth in this region. See page 1430. Photo: Stefan Hendricks, Alfred Wegener Institute, Expedition IceArc (ARK27-3)

In Sydney, for example with the hot dry wind coming from the west, one should expect a humidity of about 20 to 25 per cent... but the humidity on a day like today (22/3/13) is still ABOVE 40 per cent. So what's happening? 
So, today's temperature in Sydney is 31 degrees, with the wind from the west and a cloudy humidity blanket at 41 per cent. Quite conflicting sets of numbers if you ask me, but during the night the humidity is likely to retain the cloudy blanket and the temperature won't fall below 22 degrees though it should (average minimum for March: 17.6 degrees Celsius). Global warming influences? Eventually we will have to come to term with global warming the sooner the better...
Lord Monckton is an idiot. Alan Jones is an idiot. Tony Abbott is an iddiott...

The tragedy of our inertia-mind... If you need more proof of a changing weather, go to:

Gus Leonisky

greatness of the dark side...


Victoria's State Emergency Service is sending extra crews to help clean up after tornadoes damaged dozens of homes in the state's north-east.

The tornadoes brought winds of between 250 and 300 kph to the area from Cobram to Rutherglen on Thursday night, injuring 20 people and damaging more than 60 buildings.

SES incident controller Mark Cattell says six extra crews have been sent to help clean up in the worst-affected towns like Bundalong and Koonoomoo.

He says damaged powerlines and trees are still posing a risk and some caravan park residents are concerned about damaged gas cylinders.

"There may still be wires down or power down in some areas. Even though wires may be on the ground, they may still be live," he said.

"There may be properties where they've had ... some kind of surge which may be [causing] some issues within the home.

"Trees, as we've seen, [are also] fairly unstable at the moment."

About 12 homes were rendered uninhabitable and dozens of people spent last night in emergency accommodation.



Hopefully this is kosher (not a fake):

An Australian driver and passenger survive a close encounter with a tornado in New South Wales after it came within metres of their vehicle. The 24-year-old driver, Daniel Clarke, is travelling with his friend near the town of Mulwala, when the 50-metre tornado appears in a field next to them. The pair manage to escape the twister amid the flashes of exploding power lines




Convert 60 minutes of near darkness into a permanent shift in household energy use - that's the Australian goal of Earth Hour on Saturday.

Seven years in, the global movement to urge action on climate change will include Palestinian territories, Tunisia, the Galapagos Islands and Suriname for the first time, as organisers look to beat last year's participation of 152 nations or territories and 7001 cites.

In Australia landmark sites such as the Sydney Opera House and Melbourne Arts Centre will turn off their lights at 8.30pm, to be joined later by Petronas Towers in Malaysia, the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin and the Empire State Building in New York.

While critics question the value of the annual gesture to curb power use, activists aim to tap the enthusiasm for longer-lasting benefits, such as the planting of an ''Earth Hour Forest'' in Uganda, and to demonstrate community concern about a warming planet.

In Australia, this year's push is to get people to sign pledges via the Earth Hour website to switch to renewable energy.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/earth-hour/hour-of-darkness-to-shed-greater-light-on-energy-use-20130322-2gl4i.html#ixzz2OKxicrAW



global warming is cooling (in the UK)...


The plague of "global warming"in late March 2013....

Recent freezing conditions could be to blame for a 5,000-strong increase in deaths in England and Wales, reports the Mail On Sunday. Compared to average death rates over the past five years, an extra 2,000 deaths were registered in the first two weeks of March, and an extra 3,057 in February. The National Federation of Occupational Pensioners says the final winter death toll could be “horrendous”.

Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/daily-briefing/52144/ten-things-you-need-know-today-sunday-24-mar-2013#ixzz2OUWwdxff

Winter storms continued to blight virtually the whole of the country yesterday, with heavy snowfalls in the Midlands, Yorkshire and Wales, road and airport closures, and thousands left without electricity. Severe weather warnings covered the land, with only the south coast escaping.

The worst of the snow was in the Peak District, Pennines and north Wales. Bingley in West Yorkshire, which had 8.6 inches, and parts of north-east Wales, where 11.8 inches was reported in places, vied for the unenviable record of the most severe falls. A 27-year-old man was found dead in deep snow in Brierfield, near Burnley in Lancashire, yesterday. Police say the man, who has not yet been named, attempted to walk home late on Friday night. His death was not being treated as suspicious. At Millom in Cumbria, about 70 people who were stranded overnight were put up in a school; in Dumfries and Galloway motorists were trapped in their cars until morning; and in north Wales, the British Red Cross was brought in to help transport medical staff to hospitals in 4x4s, after roads became impassable. David Hallows, service manager for emergency response for the Red Cross in north Wales, said: "I've never seen snow like it. It's a metre thick in places and it's not drifting."


Global warming 'will give Britain longer, colder winters' as melting sea ice plays havoc with weather patterns
Created 10:31 AM on 24th December 2010

Melting ice will cause blasts of cold air to be funnelled over Britain during winter months
Britain will be hit by longer and colder winters in coming years because of global warming, scientists have said.Melting Arctic Sea ice has changed wind patterns in the northern hemisphere - bringing blasts of colder air across the UK.
Scientists believe the changes could be why we have been experiencing such a bitterly cold December.


Sydney is on target for its hottest week since January and hottest March week in a decade, with an average maximum temperature of about 29 degrees.
The city has already begun its unusually warm week.
On Friday, the mercury rose to 31.8, 6 degrees above the long-term monthly average and the first 30-degree day since January.
Between now and Thursday, maximum temperatures will range from about 27 degrees to about 30, helped along by plenty of sunshine and northerly winds almost every day.
For March to have this much warmth for this long is about a once-in-a-decade event.
If the forecasts are correct, it will be the hottest March week since 2002, when the average maximum was 29.6.It will come as no surprise that March overall is almost certain to end up being hotter than February, something that has happened only 17 times in the past 100 years.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/summer-in-the-city-carries-on-into-autumn-in-onceinadecade-event-20130324-2go0x.html#ixzz2OUgSWo2k
Considering that March be warmer that February in Sydney would be quite okay on any once-in-a-decade event, had not February hit record levels of temperatures... 123 records during December, January and February...
Meanwhile most global warming computer models have pointed out that the UK will be cooling quite dramatically under global warming condition. We're right on track, except this is arriving about 20 years sooner than expected...
Global warming is accelerating at an alarming rate... We need the carbon pricing, we need renewable energy sources, we need to be prepared:

A new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) says the military is not doing enough planning to cope with the problem of climate change.

The study, titled Heavy Weather, found climate change was not being considered by the Defence Department in its national and regional strategic scoping, despite the potential regional instability caused by rising sea levels, migration pressures, and the spread of infectious diseases.

ASPI deputy director Antony Bergin says the ADF has already been stretched by a spate of weather-related domestic disasters such as bushfires and floods, and should be factoring in how it will deal with simultaneous extreme weather events at home and in the region.

"The military are very used to responding to a whole range of factors that impact on military operations, whether it be population, whether it be technology, whether it be economics," he said.

"This report argues that climate change is simply another factor.

"Every Christmas now we see the military deployed to floods and bushfires in Australia.



a white easter, then a heatwave courtesy of GW...

Channel 4 weather forecaster Liam Dutton says the cold weather is down to the position of the jet stream, which is unusually far south at the moment.

"As a result, the milder, changeable spring-like weather we would normally get is being steered across Iberia and northern Africa, leaving us in the freezer – along with the rest of northwest Europe," he explained.

The only good news on the horizon is a possible heatwave later in the spring. The Daily Telegraph blames the freeze on a "blocking” pattern of high pressure to the northeast of Britain which is bringing in cold winds from Scandinavia. Such a blocking pattern should mean warmer-than-average weather once the interior of Europe warms up or if the system moves slightly further south.

The paper also reports that the unseasonal cold snap could be the result of global warming.

Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/weather/52171/britain-gears-first-white-easter-five-years#ixzz2ObVbCS8Y


Read article above.


See also: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/

and :


fighting the ultimate pseudo-scientific deception...



Warnings of Global Cooling

Nigel Weiss, Professor Emeritus at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge says that throughout earth's history climate change has been driven by factors other than man: "Variable behaviour of the sun is an obvious explanation," says Dr. Weiss, "and there is increasing evidence that Earth's climate responds to changing patterns of solar magnetic activity." The sun's most obvious magnetic features are sunspots, formed as magnetic fields rip through the sun's surface. "If you look back into the sun's past, you find that we live in a period of abnormally high solar activity," Dr. Weiss states. These hyperactive periods do not last long, "perhaps 50 to 100 years, then you get a crash," says Dr. Weiss. 'It's a boom-bust system, and I would expect a crash soon."
In addition to the 11-year cycle, sunspots almost entirely "crash," or die out, every 200 years or so as solar activity diminishes. When the crash occurs, the Earth can cool dramatically. These phenomenon, known as "Grand minima," have recurred over the past 10,000 years, if not longer. In the 17th century, sunspots almost completely disappeared for 70 years. That was the coldest interval of the Little Ice Age, when New York Harbour froze, allowing walkers to journey from Manhattan to Staten Island, and when Viking colonies abandoned Greenland, a once verdant land that became tundra.

In contrast, when the sun is very active, such as the period we're now in, the Earth can warm dramatically. This was the case during the Medieval Warm Period, when the Vikings first colonized Greenland and when Britain was wine-growing country.
No one knows precisely when a crash will occur but some expect it soon, because the sun's polar field is now at its weakest since measurements began in the early 1950s. Some predict the crash within five years, and many speculate about its effect on global warming. Several authorities are now warning of global cooling because the sun has entered a quiet period.

A Russian Academy of Sciences report in August 2006 warns that global cooling could develop on Earth in 50 years and have serious consequences.

David Archibal presentation titled "
The Past and Future of Climate" here presented to the Lavoisier Group's 2007 Workshop in Melbourne, Australia, shows a forecast of global temperatures based on a detailed analysis of sunspot cycles. He expects the next sunspot cycle (24) to be weak resulting in the start of a long cooling trend. The forecast shows a 1.5 oC drop in global temperature from 2007 to 2025. He warns "...this will have a large and negative effect on Canadian grain production...".

On July 1, 2008, the Space and Science Research Center, a solar research organization, issued a formal declaration on climate change: Global warming has ended -  a new climate era of pronounced cold weather has begun.


Burn baby burn — burn fossil fuels by the bucket load...

The deception used by the denialists is becoming more sophisticated... For example the "Friends of Science" — from the website of which the rubbish above can be found — use many graphs and twisted explanations from "scientists" (they must be scientists since they have important letters after their names) to present a case that global warming is not influenced by CO2 and that we can burn as much carbon as we like... Burn baby burn...

Excellent... Most of their graphs interpretations are dubiously erroneous if you ask my humble opinion... But then I do not have any degrees of any sorts, not even one in bullshit artistry (BA) which could become handy in a debate where fist fights shall not suffice. 

All my life I have used small doses of my "common sense" (it can be overrated in some people) as well as performed my own observations, made my own calculations and developed my understanding of processes — simple and complex... So, I can smell bullshit from three miles away, even when well wrapped up with a pink bow or presented on a street of "scientific facts" that one could drive a truck loaded with ammonium nitrate through... 

So let me say from the onset that my sixth sense tells me that the "Friends of Science" are telling us a lot of garbage...

Here, they are telling us that the sun is responsible for the heat on planets. Fair enough... Indisputable... Apparently the sun has driven a noticeable rise in temperature on Jupiter, Neptune and Fantasy Island recently. But the earth is not warming anymore since 2006, and it's on its way to cool down. Good for you, I say — but this does not fit my observations nor those of the climate change commission. 

The heat from the sun also drives the greenhouse effect that emanated from the gaseous mix in the atmosphere... Should there be more oxygen in the atmosphere, the temperatures would drop... Should there be say no water vapour in the atmosphere, the temperatures would be nearly 30 degrees Celsius below what they are presently... Water vapour is the "enfant terrible" of the atmosphere... It's erratic, unsaturated/saturated — or nearly absent at the poles... for example the air at the pole needs only 3 per cent of the water vapour to saturate into clouds than at the equator... Serious scientists would note a certain increase of water vapour while the "Friends of Science" would note a decrease... It all depends on where you don't look... From the tropopause, the concentration of water vapour becomes about one per cent of the saturated quantity at the equator. There is little or no water in the stratosphere. No matter what the skeptics say, humidity is increasing:


The skeptic argument...

Humidity is falling

"...the largest of all the positive or temperature-amplifying feedbacks in the UN’s arsenal is the water-vapor feedback. The UN gets this feedback wrong in numerous fundamental ways. For instance, its models tend to treat column absolute humidity as being uniform at all altitudes, when in fact – as Paltridge et al. (2009) have demonstrated recently – the upper troposphere (the only place where adding CO2 to the atmosphere could make any difference to temperature) is considerably drier than the models are tuned to expect." (Christopher Monckton)

What the science says...

To claim that humidity is decreasing requires you ignore a multitude of independent reanalyses that all show increasing humidity. It requires you accept a flawed reanalysis that even its own authors express caution about. It fails to explain how we can have short-term positive feedback and long-term negative feedback. In short, to insist that humidity is decreasing is to neglect the full body of evidence.


I won't bore you with the lot of fancy graphs from the "Friends of Science" that are so spectacularly complicated that one of then has been placed on a 5 degrees angle down, for the "Friends of Science" to interpret a a flat line of whatever from what obviously is a rise... Most of the graphs show increases all the way, except for the last tiny segment of data that points to a drop of whatever, to tell us the trend has peaked and it's all down hill from there towards freezing your tits off... And of course the small portion of the Vostok Ice record, used by Jo Nova, features prominently with its dust particle record missing. As if we did not know better.

Yes the increase in temperature has flat-lined for a while in the last decase... So what?... Or has it? ... Hey look, here comes 123 weather records on this continent alone just between December, January and February 2013 and if my estimates are correct, March will cook the goose again for the denialists... So will April, May, June....


I must mention,  the "Friends of Science" present this beaut diagram that tells us that casualties due to catastrophic weather events have dropped dramatically since the mid-whatever, so this would mean that catastrophic weather events are getting less potent and less numerous. To which I say BOLLOCKS in capital letters... BOLLOCKS! BOLLOCKS!!!!

One of the main reasons for the drop of freak-weather-catastrophe casualty numbers is mostly due to ADVANCE WARNING.... People are told to piss off inland, ahead of a storm surge. In the past, before our satellites and our instrumentation were placed in most nooks and crannies of the earth, we'd be riding storms blind... becoming a dead statistic in a whirlwind.

It can still happen if a tree falls on your rooftop... It has been my observation that tree canopies are not matched by their root system, contrarily to some simplistic diagrams... As well, should you have cut tree roots to remove a stump like I have done many times, you would know that though roots are tough and stringy, they are rarely as strong as tree branches... Thirdly, after a few days of rain, the soil around trees become soggy... Tall trees like some species of Angophora and Eucalyptus in Sydney "loose" their footing... As the wind shake them about, their root system slowly unearth itself until they fall — finally pushed only by a small puff and your roof is cut in half by a 60 metre tall tree. 

Thus the drop in human casualties is due to our understanding and management of information about weather events...

When Katrina came into the Gulf of Mexico, I saw it develop, on Google Earff... I emailed my friends in New Orleans to tell them to rack off with as much as they could take in their little car of loved possessions... But they forgot the photo albums... Rats... So there, the photos got swamped under six foot of water.  The storm killed more than 1,836 people with more than 700 still missing.... DESPITE THE WARNINGS... Meanwhile we all can recall the chaos in the Superbowl stadium.

When Sandy formed in the Caribbean Sea, LATE last year, I said to myself "hu-ho... There is something nasty... for me to follow on Google Earff again"... After Sandy devastated parts of Cuba, I kept a snapshot record of its travels... Things did not add up as for a "usual" storm and my guestimate was that Sandy was going to turn bad along the coast of the USA.

Where and when was still anyone's guess, even for the weather forecasters in the US, till that massive front from the North-west showed up... As Sandy was motoring north-east, I said to myself  "this ain't going to be a Sunday picnic when it veers west into that front" ... Soon there were warnings for people living along the coast to move inland. especially away from New Jersey... Without this warming, there could have been in excess of 10,000 casualties on the US coast. 

So the "Friends of Science" tell us some glorious bullshit, most of which in lengthy detailed rubbish that could be dismantled one step at a time, but why bother... It's time consuming, annoying, and the evidence is there to prove that global warming is accelerating... Proper scientific experiments tell us that CO2 is the main culprit in this anthropogenically driven global warming— after all other influences to climate change have been tallied...

Beware, the denialists though are becoming clever enough to fool the smaller minds, like that of Tony Abbott's... 

Should Einstein be alive today he would be ashamed at the gall of these pseudo-scientists at the "Friends of Science"... He would be furious at the highjacking of such a "good feeling title" to promote CRAP —  or Cunning Rubbish Antediluvian Poppycock.




See here for the Competitive Enterprise Institute rubbish...

See here for rubbish by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley... 

If you can be bothered that is... 

Beware, their pseudo-science can appear convincing enough, until one starts to peel the idiotic potato skins from in... 

Don't be tempted... I have killed the links...


Gus Leonisky



See : http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/19279


and : http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/8985

the ides of march...

Summer's last blast has sent temperature records tumbling from Queensland all the way south to Tasmania.
Melbourne's peak of 35.6 degrees was the hottest this late in the season since the extreme heat of March 1940.
Sydney was spared sweltering conditions as a sea breeze kept the maximum to 27.7, although western regions such as Penrith and Richmond had their hottest late-March day since 2006.

Across the eastern states, blistering temperatures were common.

Swan Hill, with 38.8, set a new late-season record for Victoria, while Fowlers Gap with 40.9 did the same in NSW. Both records were previously set on March 29, 1986.

Queensland, though, broke a record that had stood for 101 years. Birdsville posted 42.9 degrees, beating a record set at Longreach of 42.1 on 28 March 1912.

"If this had happened five days later, in April, we would have broken records by the bucketload," Blair Trewin, senior climatologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

Meteorologists may see other records tumble once Wednesday temperatures are examined. Launceston, for instance, posted its latest day of 30 degrees or warmer conditions.

"Certainly it's a significant, widespread event," Dr Trewin said. "You can trace it to a build-up of abnormal heat in central and Western Australia."

Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory has been warmer than average every day this month, breaking several records along the way.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/records-tumble-in-summers-final-blast-20130327-2gugj.html#ixzz2Oj2wd3Jn


killing the planet with a $1.7 trillion discount...

Governments around the world subsidize gasoline, electricity and other major forms of energy to the tune of $1.9 trillion a year according to a new International Monetary Fund study that calls for that amount to be offset through carbon taxes or other means to battle climate change and other social problems.

For the United States, that would require a $1.40 levy per gallon of gas and other fees totaling about $1,170 per person to offset the full cost [real cost] of fossil fuel use, including “externalities” such as pollution and steps to mitigate the effects of global warming...


let it snow, let it snow....


As England has been warned it will be in the grip of a cold winter till the end of April (in line with global warming computer models), as Australia keeps breaking more heat records, global warming is having some effect in other regions of the globe:


THE ORGANISERS of next year’s Winter Olympics have begun collecting snow from Russia’s rural mountains in case this year’s warm winter is repeated – an outcome which could leave them short of snow when the games come around.

The Russian city of Sochi, located on the Black Sea close to the border with Georgia, has had unusually little snowfall this winter, as temperatures stayed far higher than expected.

If the conditions were repeated next year, the Winter Olympics being held just outside the city could be in danger. The games are to be held in the city itself and in the nearby resort town of Krasnaya Polyana, which occasionally suffers from avalanches given the levels of snow that usually fall there.

The last winter games in Vancouver in 2010 had similar issues, when Cypress Mountain – which hosted downhill events – experienced only light snowfall. In that case, organisers had to truck in snow from a park about 160 miles east of the city.